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中国电器(688128):家电智能制造领头羊 国内电器标准权威

安信證券 ·  Oct 23, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Domestic appliance standard setting leader and leading supplier of home appliance intelligent factory system solutions: The company is an authority in setting domestic household appliance standards and a leader in intelligent home appliance equipment. Its main business includes three major fields: quality technical services, intelligent equipment, environmentally friendly coatings and resins. Due to the smooth participation of overseas business in the “Belt and Road” expansion, the growth rate of the company's largest business, intelligent equipment, has increased markedly; the environmentally friendly coatings and resins business has benefited from industry transformation driven by the national environmental protection policy, and will gain new growth points in the future due to the “paint to powder” trend; the company has recently increased investment in its authoritative quality technology service field, and it is expected that business in this field will accelerate growth and further consolidate its leading position in the industry after implementation. High R&D capability, strong first-mover advantage, talent pool and wide application of technology: The company's predecessor was a professional research institute. It has decades of research experience ahead of the development of China's electrical industry, and has a first-mover advantage unattainable by ordinary enterprises in the field of intelligent home appliance manufacturing and technical services. The company currently holds a total of 425 domestic invention, application and design patents. Most of the company's executives have scientific research/production experience in well-known universities at home and abroad, and have a R&D team of more than 300 people and a number of experts subsidized by the State Council, etc. Mainly in the three major business areas, there are 22 core technologies of various types, and most of them have achieved the transformation of scientific and technological achievements. The company has large overseas markets and closely follows policy dividends, yet there are few upstream constraints, yet there are few upstream constraints: the company has mature overseas business for two major reasons. The first is that the company is one of the few household appliance standard setters in China that has received international recognition from peers in developed countries, and the second is that it has responded positively to the “Belt and Road” strategy and exported finished technology and production equipment to countries where home appliances are becoming popular. The paint business, on the other hand, is perfectly in line with the national strategic plan. The powder coating industry, which the company focuses on deployment, is already one of China's strategic emerging industries. Most of the company's upstream raw materials are commodities, and the supply is sufficient. It is only affected by price fluctuations, while the energy used is mostly electricity, and the price fluctuation is small. The concentration of the company's upstream suppliers is low, and there is no risk that procurement channels will be monopolized by a few suppliers. Therefore, the company's bargaining power with upstream is strong, and it is not easy to be restrained. The fund-raising project not only expands production capacity, but also basic research in two steps: it is planned to raise 1,009 billion yuan to establish a basic R&D project for electrical appliance quality and a public technology service platform project for major technical equipment and environmental adaptability. The former is another R&D project of the company in the field of home appliance technology and quality services. It focuses on continuing to consolidate the company's leading position in traditional strong industries such as technical standards, while the latter further upgrades the intelligent manufacturing of the company's traditional strength testing business. In addition, this 1,009 billion yuan also includes the company's production expansion projects in the field of environmentally friendly coatings. The company's industry and research complement each other; long-term R&D; short-term production strategies are already very mature. Profit forecast and valuation: We expect the company's EPS for 2019-2021 to be $0.60, 0.69, and $0.82 (fully diluted by the shares issued through the IPO). According to the absolute valuation method, we have determined that the company's inquiry range is 14.96-17.91 yuan; according to the relative valuation method, we believe that the reasonable price range of the company after listing is 17.25-20.70 yuan, corresponding to a 20-year PE valuation of 25-30 times. Risk warning: increased industry competition, risk of downstream industry cycle fluctuations, risk of overseas business, risk of issuance failure, etc.

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