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海宁皮城(002344):业绩低于预期 主业经营情况平淡

光大證券 ·  Oct 23, 2019 00:00  · Researches

  The operating income of the 1-3Q2019 company also fell 6.91%, and net profit fell 18.30%. 1-3Q2019 achieved operating income of 1,042 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.91%; realized net profit of 243 million yuan, converted to fully diluted EPS of 0.19 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.30%; and realized net profit deducted from non-return mother of 214 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.68%, and performance fell short of expectations. Looking at the quarterly split, 3Q2019 achieved operating income of 272 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.71%; realized net profit of 36 million yuan, converted to fully diluted EPS of 0.03 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 43.79%; and realized net profit deducted from non-return mother of 24 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.10%. The consolidated gross margin increased by 6.29 percentage points, and the expenses ratio for the period increased by 0.62 percentage points. The consolidated gross margin of the 1-3Q2019 company was 54.71%, up 6.29 percentage points from the previous year. The 1-3Q2019 company's expenses for the period were 17.04%, up 0.62 percentage points from the previous year. Among them, the sales/management/finance expense ratio was 8.32%/8.17%/0.46%, respectively, and the year-on-year change was -0.91/0.30/1.14 percentage points, respectively. The main business situation was lackluster. Exploring innovative marketing methods, the company's main property leasing and management business continued to be affected by the industry downturn in the third quarter. The year-on-year decline in revenue and profit increased compared to the second quarter. At the same time, the fashion towns and medical businesses that the company is exploring are still in the early stages of development, making it difficult to contribute significantly to revenue and profit. Under the pressured revenue situation and possible cost pressure, the company may face future or continued operating pressure. The company established an e-commerce supply live streaming center in October to provide one-stop supply chain platform services including e-commerce delivery, live streaming centers for influencers, supporting photography scenes, anchor training, and e-commerce training. We are optimistic about the company's efforts to explore new marketing methods. Live e-commerce and the associated C2B business model may bring significant improvements to the sales of the company's merchants. Lower the profit forecast and maintain a “neutral” rating. The company's revenue continues to be hampered by the downturn in the professional market industry. We lowered our forecast for the company's fully diluted EPS in 19-21 to 0.24/ 0.23/ 0.23 yuan (previously 0.26/ 0.26/ 0.26 yuan) to maintain the “neutral” rating. Risk warning: Supply in the commercial real estate industry exceeds demand, and the downward pressure on rent exceeds that.

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