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通宇通讯(002792)2019年三季报业绩预告点评:Q3业绩大幅增长 5G产品进入批量生产出货阶段

中信證券 ·  Oct 15, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Benefiting from domestic and foreign market expansion and batch delivery of 5G products, the company expects net profit of 8800-95 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2019, a significant increase of 45.67-57.26% over the previous year. Continued optimism about the launch of the global 5G construction cycle has led to a sharp rise in the volume and price of the company's antenna and radio frequency products, maintaining the 2019/2020/2021 EPS forecast of 0.39/0.78/1.14 yuan, respectively, and maintaining the “increased holdings” rating. The industry boom is on the rise, and the company's performance in 2019Q3 increased significantly. Benefiting from the company's increased domestic and foreign market expansion and batch shipments of related products brought about by the launch of the 5G construction cycle, the company expects net profit from the company to increase by 45.67%-57.26% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2019, with significant performance growth. On a quarterly basis, net profit for 2019Q3 is estimated at 3693-43.93 million yuan (median value of 404.3 billion yuan), a year-on-year growth rate of 126.98-170.00% (median value of 148.49%), significantly higher than the level of 38.12% in 2019Q2. The 5G construction cycle has officially started, and the company has entered the mass production and shipment stage. The 5G commercial license was issued on June 6, 2019, and the 5G cycle officially began; in 2019, operators invested 41 billion dollars in 5G, and we expect to build about 130,000 5G base stations; we expect the number of 5G stations to be built in 2020 to reach 800,000, which is expected to exceed market expectations. In this context, the company is deeply involved in 4G and has a strong focus on 5G. 5G antenna and radio frequency products have officially entered the batch production and shipment stage, and sales performance is expected to continue to grow in the future. Furthermore, in the 5G era, the higher technical threshold and increased concentration brought about by antenna radio frequency coupling are also expected to drive the company's gross margin back up and enhance the company's profitability. Domestic and international market expansion is progressing steadily, and diversified product systems improve industrial layout. In the context of the shift of downstream customers from operators to equipment vendors in the 5G construction era, the company cooperates closely with equipment vendors such as Huawei/ZTE and Datang at home; overseas, it has passed the certification of Nokia/Vodafone/UAE Telecom/Telefónica and other system operators, and sold its products to more than 60 countries and regions around the world. The share of overseas revenue has continued to increase in recent years. In addition, in addition to base station antenna products, the company actively lays out microwave antenna/RF device product lines and continues to expand into the field of optical modules. The revenue of 2019H1 microwave antennas and RF device products increased by 82.7%/92.3% year-on-year, while the share of optical communication business revenue increased to 11.39%. Future related developments deserve continued attention. Risk factors: 5G base station construction and capital expenses fall short of expectations; overseas sales are blocked; market competition intensifies. Investment advice: Be optimistic that the global 5G construction cycle will drive the volume and price of the company's antenna and radio frequency products to rise sharply, maintain the 2019/2020/2021 EPS forecast at 0.39/0.78/1.14 yuan, and maintain the “increase in holdings” rating.

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