Event: The company released the 2019 three-quarter report forecast. It is expected to achieve a profit of 17 million to 23 million yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year decrease of 72% to 79%. Q3 is expected to achieve profit of 87.83 million to 93.83 million yuan in a single quarter, an increase of 233% to 256% over the previous year. Q3 achieved a major reversal in the single quarter compared to the first half of the year. Due to the obvious seasonal characteristics of the company's business, there were many cost confirmations in the first half of this year, which caused a certain drag on performance. The Q3 results achieved a major reversal, completely reversing losses compared to the first half of the year. Presuming the Q3 quarterly results, it is expected that the revenue confirmation amount for overseas and urban lifeline business will increase significantly from the first half of the year, which is expected to be an inflection point in the performance of the whole year. The logic of replicating urban lifelines from other locations has been further strengthened. The company recently announced that it won the bid for the “Smart Jiangxia” one center and two platforms project in Wuhan. Wuhan is the first city after Hefei to land the second phase of the Urban Lifeline project. It fully proves that the urban lifeline has not only been successfully replicated from another site, but can also continue to expand construction content on the basis of achieving good results after offsite replication, and the offsite replication logic of the city's lifeline has been further strengthened. Deeply bind the interests of key personnel and fully stimulate combat effectiveness. The second phase of the company's employee stock ownership plan was purchased at the end of June this year, totaling 3.27 million shares, accounting for 2.11% of the total share capital, with an average transaction price of 33.99 yuan/share. In May of this year, it was announced that the executive team would accept 5.50% of the company's shares through an asset management plan. Deeply binding the interests of executives and core employees through equity helps to continuously stimulate the combat effectiveness of key personnel. Investment advice: As a highly commercialized public safety software company, the establishment of the Ministry of Emergency Management has established the company's medium- to long-term growth logic, and the positive impact is gradually showing; the three new businesses, typically represented by industrial safety, are expected to open up a full volume market for the company. The EPS for 2019-2020 is expected to be 0.99 yuan and 1.51 yuan respectively, maintaining the “buy-A” rating, and the target price for 6 months is 50 yuan. Risk warning: New business development falls short of expectations; performance transformation of ongoing orders falls short of expectations.
辰安科技(300523):收入确认加速 Q3业绩实现大逆转
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