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航新科技(300424):军用直升机补缺放量 公司迎来业绩拐点

世紀證券 ·  Sep 23, 2019 00:00  · Researches

  1) The company is a third-party aviation parts maintenance leader and military aviation ginseng development leader. The company has been deeply involved in the aviation maintenance field for 25 years. It is mainly engaged in the two major sectors of aviation maintenance and service, and equipment development and support. It can repair and manufacture. The flying ginseng it has developed accounts for about 86% of the market share of military helicopters. 2) Military helicopters are showing a trend of filling vacancies, setting the tone for the company's growth. In terms of model, there is a serious shortage of 10-ton utility helicopters; quantitatively, it is conservatively estimated that our country has a shortfall of 900 military helicopters. Judging from the rules of helicopter development, the new general-purpose military helicopter has entered the final mass production stage. Judging from the changes in ownership, military helicopters began an accelerated deployment cycle in '18. At the same time, the performance performance of Zhongzhi Co., Ltd., a downstream automaker, also confirmed that military helicopters are showing a trend in the volume of military helicopters. 3) By filling the shortage of supporting military aircraft and upgrading informatization, the company's second-generation products will be released. The company's second-generation product, the Helicopter Health and Usage Inspection System (HUMS), is the supporting equipment for the informatization upgrade of military helicopters, with an estimated market space of [927] billion. The company HUMS has passed the first batch of technical tests and will install machines in batches. It is estimated according to first-generation product volume rules, which is expected to bring the company an average of at least 100 million dollars in incremental revenue. 4) Mergers and acquisitions of overseas Magnetic MRO AS (MMRO) companies to increase the company's performance. MMRO is a high-quality Estonian company with good profitability. MMRO mergers and acquisitions will, on the one hand, improve the company's aviation maintenance business layout, and on the other hand, help the company expand overseas markets. In 2018, MMRO had revenue of 590 million yuan and net profit of 0.3 million yuan. The scale is more than double the company's original business. After a complete merger in '19, the company's performance will be further enhanced. 5) Profit forecasts and investment ratings. According to forecasts, the company's EPS in 2019/2020/2021 was 0.30/ 0.35/0.53 yuan respectively, and the dynamic price-earnings ratio was 63/54/36 times, respectively, and the valuation was higher than that of comparable companies. However, considering that the company's second-generation product, HUMS, is expected to increase volume, the merger and acquisition of MMRO boosts the company's performance, and for the first time, it has been given an “increase in holdings” rating. 6) Risk warning: military orders fluctuate; military helicopter installations fall short of expectations; civil aviation maintenance competition intensifies.

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