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康斯特(300445):高研发投入力促产品迭代 国内订单饱满

東興證券 ·  Oct 15, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Report summary: Event: The company released its performance forecast for the first three quarters of 2019. Net profit (consolidated) attributable to shareholders of listed companies (consolidated) was 508.5991 million yuan to 574.929 million yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 15%-30% over the previous year. Net profit for the third quarter was about 16.1004 million yuan to 17.638 million yuan, an increase of about 5%-15% over the previous year. High R&D investment empowers development, and product iteration continues to advance. The company's R&D investment in the first three quarters accounted for nearly 18%. In the first half of the year, the self-developed process equipment Const 8000 fully automatic temperature field calibration system was officially put into use, further improving the delivery capacity of Const 660 series products. The first ConST685 intelligent multi-channel thermometer with 8 and a half digit measurement accuracy in China was launched, breaking the monopoly pattern of high-precision measurement by foreign technology in related application fields. The pressure and temperature detection instrument industry has certain technical barriers and requires continuous high R&D investment. The company's R&D personnel and R&D expenditure have continued to rise in recent years. In 2018, the company had 93 technical personnel, accounting for 30.90% of the number of employees. Promotion of calibration, testing, and sensor ecosystem construction. The company is currently promoting non-public distribution and is investing in a project to expand the production of pressure and temperature detection instruments. After delivery, 30,000 new pressure and temperature detection instruments will be added per year, greatly alleviating the bottleneck in the company's production capacity. The company invested its own capital in the construction of the MEMS sensor project to achieve the production target of 300,000 pressure sensor cores per year. It is estimated that the annual sales revenue after delivery will reach about 819 million yuan and net profit of 205 million yuan. The company's Const 9001 pressure gauge grade sorting test system has entered the final testing stage, which will provide strong support for production expansion projects and MEMS sensor projects. At present, the company's domestic market is full of orders, and the field of measurement and testing is growing rapidly year-on-year. Except for the power industry, which has declined slightly, all other industry segments have maintained steady growth; the international market relies on the advantages of high-end products and services to hedge against the impact of trade frictions through a multi-core linkage model of “testing products+testing services”. Company profit forecast and investment rating: We expect the company's operating income from 2019 to 2021 to be 311 million yuan, 386 million yuan and 533 million yuan respectively; net profit of 93 million yuan, 116 million yuan and 165 million yuan respectively; EPS is 0.57 yuan, 0.70 yuan and 1.00 yuan respectively; corresponding PE is 28.51X, 23.21X and 16.25X respectively, maintaining a “highly recommended” rating. Risk warning: 1. Production expansion and MEMS project construction fall short of expectations; 2. Downstream demand falls short of expectations.

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