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天音控股(000829):“手机分销+彩票”双主业驱动公司业绩持续增长

興業證券 ·  Sep 23, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Starting with mobile phone distribution, equity is scattered but shareholder strength is getting stronger. The company started with offline mobile phone distribution in 1997. After major asset restructuring and equity changes, the company has now developed into a group company integrating Internet marketing, mobile connectivity, mobile communications, lottery and other businesses. The development of the “one network, one platform” strategy has also drawn a blueprint for the company's future development. The Chinese mobile phone market has ushered in a new wave of 5G mobile phone switches, and the third- and fourth-tier markets have great potential. Based on the deep integration of smartphones as the gateway to mobile internet and human life, 5G phones are expected to open the high-speed IoT era of smartphones. IDC expects 5G smartphones to exceed 400 million units by 2023, with a market share of 26%. Currently, there are 300,000 T3-T6 mobile phone retail stores in the Chinese market, with offline sales accounting for 75%, and T3-T6's share in the mobile phone distribution market is 80%, so the total offline market volume of T3-T6 is 75% * 80% *1 trillion = 600 billion/year. Focus on Tianyin's advantages: strong sales and channel networks, virtual operator pioneering advantages, and lottery business advantages. The company's mobile phone distribution business has certain barriers. Mainly based on the “one network, one platform” strategy, it builds a B2B2C platform, integrates small B-side resources, empowers B-side customers, and establishes a B2C system on the retail side to create a community e-commerce model and social e-commerce model. At the same time, the company was one of the first companies to have an official license as a virtual operator. It quickly gained insight into market opportunities to seize the growth dividends brought about by service differentiation in advance, and launched the “Tianyin Card” basic communication product, and the “Wearable SIM+” platform for integrated capabilities sharing for wearable devices. As a leader in the lottery industry, Tianyin Shenzhen Suicai participated in the operation of the entire lottery industry chain, from lottery research and development to downstream channel sales. At the same time, the company laid out three new businesses: one was the solution - smart betting station project, the second was winning the bid for the Fucai Keno game national sales system, the first major national system, and the third was the new video lottery system business that won the bid. Operating income is rising steadily and healthily, while balance ratio is slowly rising year by year. The company's operating income has increased nearly 20 times over 16 years, from 2.155 billion yuan to 42,466 billion yuan in 2018. The company's main business, mobile phone distribution, is a capital-intensive industry, but with the smooth development of the “one network, one platform” strategy, net profit margin and gross margin are expected to increase dramatically. The rapid pace of expansion has increased the company's debt. The company's speed/current ratio in the past two years has been less than 1. The major capital expenses of Tianyin Building have already been more than half, and rent will contribute to stable cash flow after completion. Profit forecasting and ratings: After Shenzhen Investment Holdings, the company gradually formed a “1+N” strategic layout, cooperating with Huawei going overseas to further promote the “going global” strategy for Chinese smartphones. The company focuses on mobile distribution and the main lottery business while actively using existing channel advantages to actively expand new products. It is estimated that the company's EPS for 19-21 will be 0.27, 0.35, and 0.47 yuan respectively, and the PE corresponding to the 9.23 closing price will be 21, 16, and 12 times, respectively, to maintain the “prudent increase in holdings” rating. Risk warning: upstream gross profit squeeze, overseas demand falling short of expectations, exchange rate risk, and new business development falling short of expectations.

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