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电科院(300215):符合预期 多元化业务持续拉动收入增长

華泰證券 ·  Oct 13, 2019 00:00  · Researches

The performance of 1-3Q19 is in line with expectations. It is estimated that 1-3Q19 will achieve net profit of 11-1 to 130 million yuan (+15% ~ 40% year-on-year), and 3Q is expected to achieve net profit of 4552-57.39 million yuan (+15% to 45% year-on-year), and net profit to maintain a relatively rapid growth rate. We believe that revenue side growth will continue to increase, compounded by rising gross margin. We believe that the high point of capital expenditure in '19 is about to enter a period of contraction. High operating leverage leverages high profit growth and maintains the profit forecast of $0.22/0.29/0.41 yuan in EPS in 19-21. Referring to the average P/E value of comparable companies in '19, a target P/E of 40-41x in '19, with a target price of 8.99-9.21 yuan/share, maintaining a “buy” rating. Continued revenue growth is compounded by rising gross margin, driving gradual improvement in performance. The company expects net profit of 11-1 to 130 million yuan (+15% to 40% year-on-year) in 1-3Q19. It is estimated that non-recurring profit and loss will affect net profit of 4.5 to 8.5 million yuan (6.77 million in the same period in 2018), which is at a reasonable level. 3Q is expected to achieve net profit of 4552-57.39 million yuan (+15% to 45% year-on-year). Gross margin continued to improve (19H1 reached 49.5%, +1.5pct year on year), and consolidated revenue increased steadily, driving continued growth in 1-3Q performance: 1) From the revenue side, the incremental space for low voltage testing comes from transmission and distribution grid construction and product upgrades. High voltage testing benefited from increased demand for UHV restart/special equipment/new energy; 2) From the cost side, costs and expenses increased year over year, mainly due to the completion and consolidation of projects such as electrical environment laboratories in 2018, and depreciation expenses increased year on year. High investment is expected to drive high profit growth. Higher qualifications will expand the scope of business. The company's high investment over the past few years has led to many world rankings in its field inspection capabilities. The company's net interest rate fluctuated greatly due to the increase in depreciation costs due to the implementation and consolidation of major projects, but EBITDA maintained a relatively rapid growth rate. The CAGR reached 31% in 2016-2018, and the EBITDA profit margin increased from 56% to 66%. The profit margin in '18 fell 1.5pct to 18.1% year on year due to the consolidation of several projects at the end of '17, and the peak of capital expenditure in '19 has reached, and an inflection point in performance is beginning to show. Furthermore, on August 28, the company was included in the list of designated laboratories for compulsory product certification of explosion-proof electrical products by the National Certification and Supervision Commission. The company can gradually carry out compulsory product certification and testing work in explosion-proof electrical-related products and fields, which is expected to expand the scope of services in the field of compulsory product certification and testing. Maintain the profit forecast, maintain the buying rating company as the leader in the field of low pressure/high pressure testing, 19. The high point of capital expenditure has been reached, operating leverage has led to an increase in profit margins, and maintain the profit forecast of 19-21 EPS of 0.22/0.29/0.41 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to 31x/24x/17x P/E in 19-21. Referring to the average P/E value of comparable companies in 2019, the target price is 8.99-9.21 yuan/share, maintaining the “buy” rating. Risk warning: Revenue fell short of expectations, and profit margins increased less rapidly than expected.

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