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辰安科技(300523)2019年3季报预告点评:拐点已然确立 后续更加精彩

華創證券 ·  Oct 13, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Matters: The company released a three-quarter report forecast: net profit of 17 million to 23 million yuan in the first three quarters, which significantly reversed losses; Q3 achieved net profit of 87.83 million to 93.83 million in a single quarter, a sharp increase of 233% to 256% over the previous year. Comment: The performance greatly exceeded expectations, and the inflection point was officially established. The company achieved net profit of 17 million to 23 million yuan in the first three quarters, significantly reversing losses; in a single 3 quarter, it achieved net profit of 87.83 million to 93.83 million, a sharp increase of 233% to 256% over the previous year, and the performance greatly exceeded market expectations. We predict that the revenue side will also grow rapidly, and the company's inflection point has been officially established. Ongoing orders are sufficient, and subsequent high growth in performance can be expected. According to the 2018 annual report, the company revealed that the total amount of the top ten unapproved contracts was 1.823 billion, and the actual amount is expected to be around 2 billion; as of June 30, 2019, according to China Procurement Network data, the company's winning orders increased 75% year over year (not taking into account the HKUST Li'an order situation); considering the rising popularity of the Ministry of Emergency Management and the accelerated development of smart city lifelines, we are confident of the company's order and performance growth. Executive equity transfers and employee stock ownership plans have all been completed, and growth momentum and vitality are expected to be fully unleashed. Previously, the asset management plan of the company's executives had already taken over 5.5% of the shares. The previous second-phase employee holdings had already bought 2.11%, and the total number of executives and employees held 7.61% of the company's shares. In the context of state-owned holdings, the shareholding ratio of executives and employees is high, which is expected to fully mobilize vitality. 5G infrastructure is gradually being improved, and the city's lifeline is expected to be implemented at an accelerated pace. One of the typical application scenarios of 5G is the urban Internet of Things. The company's urban lifeline is “Internet of Things+platform software”, and the gradual maturity of 5G is expected to accelerate the implementation of the urban lifeline. It has already landed in Hefei, Huaibei, Wuhan, and Xuzhou before, and is expected to land in more cities such as Foshan in '19. Investment advice: The company's inflection point for the 3rd quarter has been established. Considering that there are plenty of orders in hand and the continuous increase in industry sentiment, it is expected that the future will be even more exciting. We maintain our estimated net profit of 0.203 billion yuan, 0.306 billion yuan, and 0.462 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding valuations of 48 times, 32 times, and 21 times, respectively, maintaining a target price of 44.02 yuan, and maintaining a “strong push” rating. Risk warning: Overseas political and economic situation is unstable; order acceptance progress falls short of expectations.

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