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友阿股份(002277)首次覆盖报告:业态积极调整 购物中心奥莱亟待发力

國泰君安 ·  Sep 25, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Guide to this report: The company is a leading department store retailer in Hunan Province. It has a full range of department store businesses such as department stores, outlets, shopping centers, and specialty stores. The department store reform strategy is progressing steadily, new shopping center Ole stores are growing steadily, and revenue and profit can be expected to resume growth. Key investment points: Investment suggestions: The company is a leading department store retail leader in Hunan Province, and the regional brand influence is outstanding. The company's department store business reform continued to advance. Shopping malls continued to be expanded in 2019, and Ole's growth was steady. EPS is expected to be 0.25, 0.28, and 0.31 yuan in 2019-2021. Referring to industry discounts, the company's PB valuation is 0.75 times. For the first time, the target price is 3.5 yuan, with a “cautious increase” rating. Revenue and profit were pressured by fluctuations in real estate confirmation, and shopping center Ole grew steadily. 2019H1's revenue was 3,078 billion yuan/ -20.16%, and net profit was 184 million yuan/ -11.54%. This was due to the large revenue confirmed by the property and adjustments of Youa Department Store in the same period last year; Ole's new store led to an increase in revenue share, with a gross profit margin of 20.93%, down 1.22pct from the same period; benefiting from the investment income of the participating company Bank of Changsha, a net interest rate of 5.98%, an increase of 0.61 pct. By business type, the gross profit margin of department stores and real estate declined, mainly due to store closures and reduced real estate settlements. Sales of the same shopping center Ole increased by 7.37% and 8%, respectively. The transformation of Olay Shopping Center is progressing steadily, the new retail layout is accelerating, and the profit growth of the participating company Bank of Changsha is growing steadily. 1) The company focuses on promoting department store reform. It has rapidly built shopping malls and Ole stores in the past three years. Currently, 4 shopping malls have been opened, 1 is under construction, 2 Ole stores are in operation, and the efficiency of both sales stores has increased. As the next new store matures and new stores open, it will gradually replace the traditional department store business as a new source of performance. 2) Online sales platforms contributed nearly 10% to revenue, with self-built online platforms accounting for 26.4% year-on-year, and luxury goods online sales subsidiary Oupai Yishuhui's revenue of 278 million yuan, 11% year-on-year; 3) Bank of Changsha, where the company participated 6.68% of its shares, showed steady performance growth. 2019H1 revenue increased 26.4% year over year, and net profit increased 11% year over year, confirming investment income of 186 million yuan and stable performance contribution. Catalysts: The gradual growth of second new stores, growth in new store performance, etc. Risk warning: Economic growth continues to decline, new store performance falls short of expectations, competition intensifies, etc.

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