This report is read as follows:
Xiexin Integration is a leading component supplier, benefiting from the global growth of photovoltaic, improving profitability by opening upstream batteries, and laying out overseas EPC business to create a new growth pole. Cover for the first time, giving a "neutral" rating.
Main points of investment:
Cover for the first time, giving a "neutral" rating. It is estimated that the EPS from 2019 to 2021 will be 0.007, 0.02,0.03 yuan respectively, as Xiexin integration has a unique technical route in the photovoltaic field, such as Xin single crystal, stacked tiles, etc., and the layout of semiconductor recycled wafer projects, the valuation should be higher than the average level of the power equipment industry, it is reasonable to give 0.007 times PB in 2019, with a target price of 6.36 yuan.
Tier1 first-tier component suppliers benefit from the global growth of photovoltaic. Photovoltaic demand has gradually changed from domestic-led to overseas demand-driven. In the context of overseas demand-driven, leading component companies will gain a competitive advantage, because overseas component sales rely heavily on bank support and project certification. Xiexin integrated shipments rank among the top 10 in the world and are judged by "Bloomberg New Energy Finance" judge Tier1 first-class component suppliers, overseas sales are relatively smooth, a wide range of channels, with global brand influence, overseas business shipments 1.33GW in the first half of 2019 Accounts for more than 60%. It is expected that in the future, photovoltaic will be driven by parity-driven growth worldwide, and the company will fully benefit. The company's products are diversified, multi / single / Xin single crystal at the same time. Xin Danjing is a polycrystal upgrade product, overseas shipments of 200MW in the first half of the year, orders in hand 600MW. Orders for double-sided double glass components are nearly 300MW; stacked tile products are popular overseas.
The construction of the industrial chain is progressing smoothly, and overseas EPC business may become a new growth pole. Xiexin integrated Xuzhou Xinyu 3GW high efficiency battery production capacity has reached production, Maanshan Qichen 500MW battery production base has also been successfully put into production, the company's vertical integration from battery chips to components is gradually advancing, which will help the company to reduce the dependence on battery extraction, help to further reduce component costs, and launch differentiated products. It is expected that the company will be able to achieve a battery self-sufficiency rate of more than 60% by the end of 2019. Photovoltaic overseas projects have been gradually transformed into PPA development model, the overall revenue is relatively stable and controllable, with reasonable profit margins and cash flow, it is expected that overseas EPC business will become the focus of the development of EPC.
Catalyst. The upward boom in the industry brought a rebound in prices in the fourth quarter.
Risk hint. Overseas trade risk, uncertainty risk of semiconductor recycled wafers.
