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迪马股份(600565):受益区域相对景气度 地产及工业协同发展

Dumas (600565): benefit from the coordinated development of real estate and industry in the beneficiary area

光大證券 ·  Sep 10, 2019 00:00  · Researches

The revenue of H1 in 2019 was + 35.09% compared with the same period last year, and the net interest rate increased 6.14pc.

In the first half of 2019, the company's revenue was 3.551 billion yuan + 35.09% compared with the same period last year, and its net profit was 393 million yuan + 115.03% year-on-year. Gross margin year-on-year-4.11pc, mainly affected by the carry-over structure. The net interest rate is 12.33% compared with the same period last year + 6.14pc, mainly due to the increase in investment income.

Real estate sector: benefit from the relative scenery of the central and western regions, structural transformation helps to increase the gross profit margin

Benefiting from the relatively high demeanor of the real estate market in the central and western regions, the company's sales continued to grow in the first half of the year. The amount received in advance is 30.555 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, and the settlement coverage calculated according to the 2018 annual report is 2.3yuan. The actual investment of the project under construction is 11.6 billion, which is + 16% compared with the same period last year on the basis of high base. The company is actively expanding, Hangzhou and Zhengzhou are expected to become new profit contribution points, and the structural transformation will help to improve the overall gross profit margin.

Industrial and construction sector: revenue from the construction sector has increased significantly, and special-purpose vehicles have been actively expanded.

In the first half of 2019, the revenue of the company's special purpose vehicle sector was 349 million, an increase of 25.74% over the same period last year, and obvious progress was made in regional development. The revenue of bulletproof vehicle orders in the current period increased by 21% compared with the same period last year, overseas market orders increased by about 150%, and maintenance orders increased by about 200%. The company has vigorously promoted the transformation and upgrading of intelligent manufacturing, the efficiency of production and delivery has been greatly improved, and the output value of the integrated product line has increased by 52% compared with the same period last year. The revenue of the green decoration project reached 37 million in the first half of the year, an increase of 534.38% over the same period last year, mainly due to the company's integration of green decoration and construction business to form the Dongyuan construction plate, and the construction package business improved rapidly.

The net debt ratio increases 39.07pc to 66%, which is still in the safe range, and the follow-up financing plan is diversified.

The net debt ratio rose to 66.17% in the first half of 2019, still in a safe range. Follow-up financing plans are relatively diverse, including trust beneficial rights asset support special plan, supply chain financial asset support special plan, commercial real estate mortgage-backed securities, etc., with a total amount of about 5.8 billion, which has been approved by the shareholders' meeting. As of August 30, 2019, the common growth plan has bought a total of 23.45 million shares, accounting for 0.96% of the total share capital.

Target price 4.80 yuan, maintain the "buy" rating

The company maintains a positive attitude towards project expansion and project construction, and the follow-up goods value is guaranteed; benefiting from the regional scene, sales maintain steady growth, and the current pre-collection and settlement coverage is high; the optimization of external regional structure contributes to the improvement of gross profit margin. The special purpose vehicle business market expands smoothly, and the architectural decoration plate is integrated. At present, the net debt ratio is still in a safe range, and the financing plans are relatively diverse. We maintain the forecast EPS for 2019-2021 of 0.60 pound 0.84 pound 1.01 yuan. In view of the downward shift in the valuation center of the industry, it downgraded PE to 8 times in 2019, with a target price of 4.80 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating.

Risk hint: the continued shortage of funds in the real estate industry may affect the company's project expansion, the company's sales and payback may be lower than expected, and the construction sector business may not be as expected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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