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苏宁环球(000718):地产稳健发展 战略转型持续

國泰君安 ·  Sep 2, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Guide to this report: The company's main real estate business is developing steadily, providing stable financial support for the transformation of new businesses. The company's transformation to the cultural, sports, and medical and aesthetic sectors is progressing in an orderly and qualitative manner, which is expected to further increase the company's valuation. Investment points: 1. First coverage, a neutral rating, with a target price of $3.96. EPS for 2019/2020/2021 is expected to be 0.33 yuan, 0.35 yuan, and 0.40 yuan, respectively, with growth rates of -1%, 5%, and 16%, respectively. The company is determined to transform the cultural, sports and medical and aesthetic industries. At the same time, the main real estate business can also provide stable financial support. A successful transformation is expected to greatly increase the company's valuation. It is estimated that a reasonable PE valuation in 2019 will be about 12x, corresponding to the target price of 3.96 yuan. 2. The company's main real estate business can provide sufficient financial support for the transformation business. (1) The company's current reserves correspond to a value of about 40 billion yuan, while the 2019 sales plan is only 3 billion yuan. The company's current reserves can provide the company with stable cash flow for quite some time to come; (2) Low land costs allow the company's real estate business to have strong profitability. More than 90% of the company's current business revenue comes from real estate business, and the overall net profit margin exceeds 30%. The company's real estate business can provide strong support for the company's performance in recent years. 3. The company's core focus is whether the transformed cultural, sports, and medical and aesthetic industries can accelerate their contribution to performance to replace the original real estate business scale. The company's real estate sector is dominated by existing resources. Although it can provide good financial support for the company's transformation period, it is unable to generate new profit points. The transformation of the cultural, sports, and medical and aesthetic industries is progressing in an orderly and qualitative manner, yet operating income accounts for less than 10%, and is far from reaching the scale and profit level of replacing the original real estate business. 4. The cultivation period for cultural, sports, and medical and aesthetic businesses is long, and uncertainty is high, so the growth of the transformation business faces great challenges. The company transitioned into the cultural, sports, and medical and aesthetic industries through mergers and acquisitions in 2015 and 2016. These two areas of business are still in the exploration and cultivation period. They have not yet formed mature, large-scale operations, and the transformation of new businesses is also facing great risks and challenges. 5. Risk warning: The transformation of the cultural, sports and medical and aesthetic business has fallen short of expectations

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