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哈尔滨电气(01133.HK):深度改革预计将提速 维持“收集”

國泰君安國際 ·  Mar 29, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Net profit declined 53.0% year over year in 2017. In 2017, revenue increased 2.0% year on year, while gross profit and net profit decreased by 0.7% and 53.0% year on year, respectively. The main reason for the decline in earnings during the period was a sharp rise in asset impairment, which doubled to 1 billion yuan. The gross margin for the period fell 0.4 percentage points to 13.5% year on year, mainly because the gross margin of some segments remained stable. Overseas revenue contributed 33.6% of revenue during the period, and we expect overseas markets to drive growth in the future. We expect deep reforms to be implemented in 2018 to reverse the company's downward trend. The decline in earnings in recent years is mainly due to the decline in domestic investment in traditional power generation equipment. We expect that corporate transformation and in-depth reforms will be initiated to reverse the company's downward trend. To reflect our confidence in the company, we've adjusted our earnings forecast. The 2017 performance was not as good as expected, mainly due to a sudden rise in asset impairment during the period, but we believe this situation will begin to improve in 2018. Our adjusted net profit per share for 2018 to 2020 was RMB 0.329, RMB 0.347, and RMB 0.373, respectively. We lowered the company's target price to HK$4.00 but maintained a “collection” investment rating. Our new target price is equivalent to 9.9 times/9.3 times/8.7 times the 2018 to 2020 price-earnings ratio or 0.4 times the 2018 net price ratio.

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