With the vision of clearer human vision, relying on military optical lens technology and insisting on civil-military integration, the company has achieved 11.80% market share in the field of security lenses, ranking third in the industry. In the case of leading technology & market breakthrough, the company is likely to become an important provider of high-performance lenses in intelligent multi-scenes and a leader in domestic optical lenses.
Main points:
Aerospace engineering acceleration & weapons and equipment train-driven military custom optical lenses revenue will grow by 48% in the next 3 years. It is estimated that the revenue from the military business from 2019 to 2021 is 225 million yuan respectively, an increase of 53%, 48% and 42% over the same period last year.
The company leads the market in zoom and ultra-clear lenses and is expected to be the biggest beneficiary in the field of security intelligent lenses. It is estimated that revenue from the security industry from 2019 to 2021 will be RMB 655 million, an increase of 22.33%, 23.34% / 87.39%, respectively.
With the opening of the era of everything intelligence, vehicle, infrared and other information collection units need to be released.
It is estimated that the revenue from the vehicle business and the infrared lens business from 2019 to 2021 is 0.26 trillion yuan, respectively, an increase of 13.42%, 13.78% and 212.45% over the same period last year.
Profit forecast and valuation: the return net profit from 2019 to 2021 is RMB 1.06 billion, respectively, with a compound growth rate of 34.34%. A reasonable valuation of 80-90 times the 2019 profit is given, with a corresponding price of RMB 54.95-61.82, corresponding to a market capitalization of RMB 84.40-9.495 billion, and a closing price of CNY 73.20 on August 30, 2019. It is recommended to keep an eye on the company's production and new business development trends and not to rate it for the time being.
In the long run, if the company can become the industry standard setter in the domestic lens field, lead the technological progress of the industry, and enjoy the manufacturing scale effect, the company may become a high-end lens leader with a market capitalization of about 50 billion. The continuous strengthening of this expectation depends on the gradual realization of the first share of the company's security, vehicle, AI and other scenarios.
Risk hints: increased competition in the industry, reduction in customer procurement, operational risks caused by intensified trade frictions between China and the United States, systemic risks, and so on.