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中骏集团控股(1966.HK):小而美 期待业绩释放

東北證券 ·  Aug 31, 2019 00:00  · Researches

The company announced the 2019 interim results report. It achieved revenue of 10.4 billion yuan during the reporting period, an increase of 11% over the previous year, and realized profit attributable to the mother of 1,917 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 5% from the previous year; the core profit attributable to the mother was 1,544 billion yuan, an increase of 29% over the previous year; and the gross profit margin during the reporting period was 28.9%, down 3.4 pc from the same period last year. Sales continued to grow at a high level of elasticity, and the subsequent value of goods was sufficient. In the first half of 2019, the company achieved a sales scale of 37 billion yuan, a sharp increase of 78% over the previous year, exceeding the 2016-2018 CAGR of 48%; the average sales price was 12,481 yuan/square meter, which is basically the same as the average price for the whole of 2018; in the first half of the year, the company completed 53% of the sales target of 70 billion yuan set at the beginning of the year, ranking among the highest in the industry. It is estimated that the company's sales value will reach 65 billion yuan in the second half of the year. It is basically safe to achieve the sales target of 70 billion yuan, and it is likely that it will be exceeded. Seize the market cycle and cultivate the cities already covered. In the first half of the year, the company added a total of 27 plots of land, with a construction area of 5.27 million square meters, corresponding value of goods of 70 billion yuan; total land consideration was 24 billion yuan, equity ratio was 60.07%, and the equity consideration that the company needed to pay was about 14.4 billion yuan; the average land cost price was 4,557 yuan/square meter, and the land to goods ratio was 2.74. As of the end of June, the company's total land reserves were 28.12 million square meters (29.01 million square meters if investment properties were included), of which the first tier and second tier cities accounted for 12% and 66% respectively, and the land storage had a certain safety cushion. Financial leverage remains solid, and liquidity remains abundant. As always, the company maintained a steady leverage strategy. As of the end of June, the company's total debt was 40.355 billion yuan, up 21% from the end of 2018; the net debt ratio was 66.2%, down 2 percentage points from the same period last year; and the weighted financing cost was 6.7%, up 0.3 percentage points from the average cost for the full year of 2018. Of the debt, debt within one year accounted for only 22.7%, and the coverage ratio of short-term cash debt reached 2.56 times, an improvement from the end of 2018 to a certain extent. Maintaining the company's purchase rating, the EPS for 2019, 2020, and 2021 is expected to be 0.98, 1.19, and 1.53 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE is 3.5, 2.9, and 2.2 times; risk warning: project carry-over progress falls short of expectations; joint venture projects carry over quickly; and market declines in key regions.

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