This report is read as follows:
The historical cost of the license plate and the current price control of the taxi business make it difficult for the company to turn its attentive operation into profits for the time being. Fortunately, real estate and financial assets provide value support.
Main points of investment:
The taxi business is subject to asymmetric regulation and the rating is "neutral". Car rental and hotel business are expected to remain stable, real estate development projects are settled one after another, and stock disposal is expected to continue to contribute to profits. We predict that the EPS in 2019-21 is 0.39,0.39,0.41 yuan. Synthesize DCF and average PE of comparable company, give the company the target price of 4.06yuan. Compared with ride-hailing, traditional taxi companies are subject to asymmetric control of price and license plate, and the careful operation of enterprises is difficult to reflect sustainable performance growth in the short term.
Taxi and hotel profits are expected to be stable. The stage of high subsidy for online car-hailing and Internet car rental has passed, and the diversion of the company's business is basically stable. The tolerance of the competent authorities for the innovation of Internet car rental business is conducive to the travel of the public, but it objectively leads to the reduction of the value of the stock license of all taxi companies. Considering the inflation of medium-and long-term labor costs, the improvement of profitability in the future depends on the relaxation of price controls. In view of the current macroeconomic situation, it is not possible to expect too much from price deregulation for the time being. The rebound of hotel occupancy rate leads to a pick-up in income growth, and the future operation is expected to be stable.
Financial investment contributes profits. The book value of financial assets available for trading in 2018 is 3.6 billion yuan, and it is expected to contribute profits and smooth performance fluctuations in the future. However, due to the uncertain time for companies to dispose of financial assets, the disposal price is more difficult to predict, so the contribution to profits is also uncertain.
Real estate settlement will contribute to profits and cash flow. The real estate project is about to be pre-sold and will contribute to settlement profits in the future. at the same time, by withdrawing cash, the company will reduce its financial costs and enhance its investment capacity in the future.
Risk hint. Taxi drivers have lost, car-hailing subsidies have increased again, hotel occupancy rates have fallen, house prices have fallen, and stock prices have fallen.
