This report is read as follows:
The company's land replacement value to build a bottom valuation, and actively develop a new business model. However, historical dividends are too low and sustainable sources of profits still need to be cultivated.
Main points of investment:
For the first time, the rating is "neutral". The company has considerable land value and has actively mixed up in the past five years and cultivated new business models such as "car-free carrier". Profit cultivation still takes time, collection and storage time is uncertain, profit forecast is not taken into account. It is predicted that the EPS in 2019-21 is 0.05pm 0.07pm 0.13RMB.
Comprehensive reference to the logistics industry valuation level, as well as land revaluation value, 2019 1.1 times PB, target price 5.50 yuan.
The appreciation of land is obvious, and collection and storage provides a way to realize it. China Storage is the earliest large-scale warehousing giant in China, which accumulates a lot of land in the early stage. With the expansion of the city, the location advantage is enhanced and the value appreciates obviously. At present, the company has more than 6 million square meters of land. according to the surrounding comparable land price, the land replacement price may exceed 15 billion yuan, which is significantly higher than the book value of 2.5 billion yuan. During the six land acquisitions and deposits in 2012-18, the total compensation for demolition exceeded 3.5 billion yuan, which is the main source of profits in recent years. Unfortunately, most of them have not been converted into shareholders' dividends.
The strategy will be introduced into GLP to lead the mixed reform of state-owned enterprises. In 2014, GLP will be added to become the second largest shareholder. GLP is an international leader with rich management experience in high-end warehousing, which is expected to gradually promote the company's business transformation and upgrading and enhance the company's asset profitability. The two sides will set up a joint venture in 2018, and there may be new progress in the future.
The scale of "car-free transportation" business is growing rapidly. China Reserve Zhiyun (42% owned by the company) builds a large "car-free carrier" platform to improve the matching efficiency between shippers and drivers and reduce logistics costs. In the past three years, operating income has increased rapidly from 15 million yuan to 10 billion yuan. It made a small profit in 2018 and was invested in Chengtong Group. It is expected that the income scale will continue to grow rapidly in the future. Considering the nature of the business model and the long-term two-way imbalance of goods flow determined by China's economic geography, we believe that we should maintain rational expectations of long-term profitability.
Risk hint. Economic demand risk, business risk, policy risk, business transformation risk
