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金溢科技(002869)半年报点评:业绩有望逐季加速 再中大单提升业绩能见度

天風證券 ·  Sep 2, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Incident 1) Net profit for the first half of 2019 was 4.5 million yuan, loss of 3.869 million yuan for the same period last year; operating income was 333 million yuan, an increase of 46.23% 2) The company and Shandong Express Credit Union Payment Co., Ltd. signed the “Vehicle Electronic Tag (OBU) Supply Agreement”. The company promised to supply specified models of Bluetooth ETC vehicle electronic tags (OBU) not less than 8.95 million units from July to September. Net interest rates are the biggest highlight, and there is still room for improvement in profitability when supply is in short supply. The company's net profit margin was 12.9%, an increase of 15.8 percentage points over the previous year. On the one hand, it benefited from a steady rise in prices and a 5.4 percentage point increase in gross margin; on the other hand, the cost ratio benefited from a 6.2 percentage point reduction due to the scale effect. Considering the phased shortage of products and the effects of business scale, there is still room for improvement in profitability. Facing a period of intense release of orders and performance, we are optimistic that performance will accelerate quarterly consideration of policy requirements and the completion schedule announced by the Ministry of Transport. It is expected that Q3 will usher in a peak in orders. According to the announcement, the company has actively expanded production capacity. Considering the high increase in revenue and the possibility of a further increase in profitability due to the intensive release of orders, we are optimistic that the company's performance will accelerate quarter by quarter. ETC front loading, ETC parking, and V2X troika are expected to open up long-term growth space. According to the announcement, the company has carried out product development and preparation work related to ETC front loading, ETC parking, and V2X. Among them, considering policy progress, ETC pre-installation is expected to be implemented in 2020, and considering policy progress, ETC parking and V2X are expected to be implemented from 2020 to 2022. Furthermore, the large order highlights the position of the industry, and the rating company that has maintained increased holdings won the bid again this time. Considering the OBU unit price situation, we expect a significant increase in performance and further increase the visibility of the annual performance. Maintaining an increase in holdings rating, considering that the order size exceeded expectations, the company's net profit forecast for the period 2019-2021 was raised from 3.10, 3.22, and 197 million yuan to 4.93, 5.25, and 274 million yuan, maintaining the increase in holdings rating. Risk warning: Product delivery speed is lower than expected; upstream raw material supply issues

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