Main points of investment
Event: company announcement: 1) 19H1 realized revenue of 3.271 billion yuan, an increase of 10.27% over the same period last year, of which the Q1/Q2 growth rate was-14.08%; the return net profit was 106 million yuan, down 19.13% over the same period last year; and the non-return net profit was-35 million yuan, down 127.42% year-on-year, of which the Q1/Q2 growth rate was-455.56% 41.54% per share.
Comments:
The revenue growth mainly comes from overseas real estate and Hunan Tongguan kiln project, and the completion delivery leads to a significant increase in financial costs, which is a drag on operating performance. During the reporting period, the company signed a sales area of 228200 square meters, the sales amount was 2.95 billion yuan, the settlement area was 157400 square meters, and the settlement amount was 1.975 billion yuan / + 7.9%. The income from other businesses increased by 14.08%. It is expected that it is mainly related to the opening of the scenic spot of Tongguanyao Ancient Town, the first large-scale cultural and tourism complex project, and the company's revenue in Hunan increased by 23.27%. Under the influence of macroeconomic regulation and control policies and active transformation of cultural travel, no new land reserves were added in the first half of the year, and the company will continue to plough the Yangtze River Delta, Dawan District, Sanya, Tianjin and other areas in the future; commercial housing sales and other business gross profit margins have declined slightly, commercial housing sales have declined 0.98pct, which is expected to be related to the decline of real estate prosperity, and other businesses will be affected by the new operation of Tongguan kiln project, and 2.19pct will decline. The overall expense rate increased by 4.25% due to the decrease of interest capitalization on the completion of the cultural travel project, of which the management expense rate and financial expense rate increased by 1.04pct and 3.33pct respectively. In addition, the company's cultural travel project received a government subsidy of 140 million yuan, which had a positive impact on the performance industry.
The connotation of culture and travel products is constantly enriched, and the operation capacity is constantly improved, which is in line with the national strategic orientation. The first large-scale cultural and tourism comprehensive project officially operated in 18 years, the product content of Changsha Xinhua Lian Tongguanyao Ancient Town has been continuously enriched. In 19 years, it joined hands with top professional teams at home and abroad to launch three boutique cultural programs, and held a number of thematic activities to enhance its popularity and influence. At the same time, it has its own travel agency Hunan overseas to effectively guide the scenic spot. After the official takeover of Langzhong Ancient City in Sichuan at the beginning of the year, a number of theme activities were held, and passenger flow and income increased significantly compared with the same period last year, highlighting the continuous improvement of the company's scenic spot operation capacity. Wuhu Jiuzi Ancient Town and Xining Children's Dream Park made every effort to speed up construction in order to ensure the opening of the second half of the year; recently, the government issued support to stimulate the potential of cultural and tourism consumption, and the company took the lead in realizing the main real estate business to "cultural tourism + real estate".
The strategic transformation is in line with the national strategic orientation. At the same time, the synergy effect has been confirmed in the Tongguan kiln project. With the continuous enrichment of the development and operation experience of the literature and tourism project, the existing projects are gradually mature and can be grown up.
Diversified layout, positive transformation, coordinated development and steady progress. Under the influence of the regulation and control policy of the real estate industry, the company has actively transformed the cultural travel consumption, and holds 8.46% of the shares of Changsha Bank through equity participation, which can continue to contribute to the steady investment income for the company and provide support for the company's operating performance during the transition layout period. at the same time, providing diversified layout can disperse business risks and continuously obtain continuous cash flow and new growth points. At present, the company has four major tourist scenic spots: Tongguanyao Ancient Town of Xinhua Union in Changsha, Sichuan Xinhua Lianzhong Ancient City, Wuhu Xinhua Lianjiuzi Ancient Town and Xining Xinhua LianTong Dream Paradise. The ability of product building and operation is constantly improving, and the development of literature and tourism is getting better and better.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company's transformation strategy has gone further in 18 years. Tongguanyao Ancient Town, the first large-scale cultural and tourism complex project, has operated well, the supporting real estate business has been well removed, and the financial layout has made important gains. Changsha Bank has completed its listing, which is an escort for the transitional period. The layout of the cultural and tourism industry chain continues to improve, becoming another driving force for the company's growth. The profit forecast for 19-21 is expected. It is estimated that the 19-21 EPS0.58/0.67/0.83 yuan, August 29 closing price corresponding to PE times 8-7-6, maintaining the "prudent overweight" rating.
Risk hints: the fixed increase project does not proceed smoothly, the housing market policy is further tightened, the effect of resource integration is not as expected, the operation of the culture and tourism project is not as expected, the progress of overseas projects is not as expected, the risk of exchange rate fluctuations, goodwill impairment risk.