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金溢科技(002869)2019年半年度报告点评:收入、利润双高增 ETC行业龙头业绩有望持续增长

國信證券 ·  Aug 30, 2019 00:00  · Researches

The report's revenue and profit both increased, and the second quarter kicked off performance delivery. The company announced on the evening of August 29, 2019, that the 2019H1 achieved revenue of 333 million yuan (+46.23%) and net profit of 4.53331 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 489.03 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.90.3 million yuan, and a year-on-year increase of 44.9273 million yuan in non-return net profit. The company's performance is in line with expectations and is in the middle of the performance forecast range. The company benefited from the impact of the “Notice on Vigorously Promoting the Development and Application of ETC on Highways” issued by the General Office of the Ministry of Transport on May 21. Sales orders surged, and the operating income and gross margin confirmed in the second quarter increased sharply, driving performance growth in the first half of the year. The completion of the total number of 180 million ETC users is a probable event. The ETC post-market space is vast. As of August 27, the total number of ETC users nationwide reached 1158.777 million, completing 60.71% of the total distribution tasks; as of July 18, the number of ETC users nationwide was 9151 million. We can calculate that in this 40-day period, the daily circulation volume reached 6092 million units. According to the National Development and Reform Commission's target of 180 million ETC users by the end of 2019, the daily circulation volume only needs to reach 5089,000 sets in the remaining 126 days of this year, which is significantly lower than the current daily circulation volume. Considering that preferential policies for expressway ETC tolls began to be implemented in early 2020, and the Spring Festival travel season is gradually approaching, the distribution volume in the fourth quarter of this year may exceed expectations, and it is expected that the total number of users targeted at 180 million will be reached or even exceeded. Starting in July 2020, OBU will also enter pre-assembly options, driving continued growth in demand for OBU. Furthermore, in the context of the rapid spread of ETC, the application scenarios of ETC payments are expected to extend to car consumption scenarios such as parking lots, on-street parking, gas stations, parking lots, and car beauty. The market space for the parking lot scenario alone exceeds 20 billion yuan. The ETC leader is deeply deployed in V2X, and self-developed products have begun to land on the V2X side. The company has continued to invest in research and development. It has launched products such as C-V2X on-board terminals, C-V2X roadside base stations, and collaborative traffic lights, and is used in scenarios such as sharp turn reminders, road construction avoidance, traffic light speed guidance, and emergency vehicle avoidance. The company's V2X products have reached commercialization standards and cooperated closely with automakers such as FAW, BAIC, and Dongfeng. Large-scale product sales can be expected. Risk warning: ETC investment growth rate fell short of expectations; parking fees and V2X business expansion fell short of expectations. Investment advice: Maintain an “overweight” rating. Net profit is estimated at 506/3.06/373 billion yuan in 2019-2021, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2237%/-39%/22%; diluted EPS = 4.30/2.60/3.17 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to PE = 16/26/21x, maintaining the “increased holdings” rating

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