Abstract: Beijing Auto's revenue in the first half of 2019 was 87.8 billion yuan, an increase of 14% over the same period last year, while its non-net profit was 2.09 billion yuan, down 26% from the same period last year. The company's gross profit margin in the first half of 2019 was 23.48%, down 3.1% from the same period last year; the net profit margin was 8.24%, down 2.22% from the same period last year.
Mercedes-Benz sales continued to grow strongly, independent brands eliminate the weak and help the strong, stop falling and pick up. Beijing Mercedes-Benz sold 282000 vehicles in the first half of the year, up 11.9% from a year earlier. The increase in Mercedes-Benz sales came mainly from new A-class cars, as well as C-class cars and GLC series SUV. Sales of branded cars in Beijing have rebounded, and the discontinued Weiwang brand is pushing ahead with the sale to controlling shareholders.
The launch of new Mercedes-Benz models has led to a reduction in gross profit margin. Beijing Mercedes-Benz has increased its investment in A-class cars (A-Class / GLA) in recent years, which has had an impact on gross profit margin to a certain extent. The A-class cars with lower positioning have lower gross profit margin and higher fixed costs in the case of small absolute sales.
Beijing Hyundai is a drag on earnings, but may bottom out in the second half of the year. In the first half of the year, Beijing Hyundai took the initiative to remove inventory with the upgrading of the sixth year, resulting in a sharp drop in profitability. At present, Beijing Hyundai's terminal sales have begun to rebound, and in the second half of the year to 2020, with the replenishment of inventory and the launch of new Sonata and a variety of new energy vehicles, we believe that the company's losses will be significantly alleviated.
In the next 1-3 years, with the continuous introduction of domestic GLB and B-class cars and new energy models, we expect the strong cycle of the Mercedes-Benz brand to continue. With the continuous enrichment of the company's product line, it will gradually alleviate the problems of high fixed cost and low gross profit margin of the current entry models.
Profit forecast: the company's revenue in 2019, 2020, and 2021 is estimated to be 1,570,69,194.1 billion yuan, respectively, and the net profit of return to the parent is 39.3998,4.581 billion yuan, respectively, and the EPS is 0.66, 0.64 and 0.74 yuan, respectively, and the year-on-year growth is-0.4%, 0.05%, 16.63%, and the corresponding PE is 9.1, 9.1, 7.8x. Cover for the first time and give a "recommended" rating.
Risk hint: passenger car consumption is lower than expected; raw material prices have risen sharply.
