Core ideas:
2019H1 achieved revenue of 655 million yuan, an increase of 15.22% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 56.2979 million yuan, an increase of 1.62% over the same period last year. 2019Q2's single-quarter revenue and return net profit were 297 million yuan and 9.369 million yuan respectively, up 12.35% and-51.46% respectively from the same period last year.
2019H1 children's clothing and online channels have achieved rapid growth.
In terms of products, 2019H1's revenue from children's wear was 521 million yuan, an increase of 9.76% over the same period last year, and revenue from children's clothing was 133 million yuan, an increase of 45.03% over the same period last year. From the perspective of different channels, 2019H1 online channel revenue is 229 million yuan, up 33.49% from the same period last year, direct channel revenue is 371 million yuan, up 9.48% year-on-year, the number of stores is 1050, net opening 60, mainly because the company actively expand shopping center stores, and improve the area and efficiency of individual stores, join channel revenue of 53.8434 million yuan, down 3.55%, the number of stores, net clearance 34 Mainly because the sales of some stores did not meet expectations.
The decrease of gross profit margin and the increase of expense rate lead to the decline of 2019Q2 net profit.
The gross profit margin of 2019Q2 was 54.74%, down 0.86% from the same period last year, and the sales expense rate was 46.00%, up 3.32% from the same period last year, mainly because the company increased the opening of offline stores, the management and R & D expenditure rate was 8.46%, up 0.69% from the same period last year, and the financial expense rate was-0.65%, up 0.99% from the same period last year.
Profit Forecast and Investment rating
In the second half of the year, the online growth is expected to be high, and offline stores are also opening more stores. At the same time, the company has stepped up its inventory removal efforts, and the loss of inventory impairment is expected to be reduced, and the tax reduction effect of the policy of pre-tax addition and deduction for R & D expenses is expected to be reflected. It is estimated that the EPS in 19-21 will be 0.69 PE 0.86 shock 1.04 yuan per share, the current price corresponds to 25 times of the 19-year PE valuation, and the average PE (TTM) valuation in the past two years is 30 times. It is prudent to give a reasonable 19-year PE valuation of 28 times, with a reasonable value of 19.32 yuan per share, and maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk hint
Industry competition aggravates risk; relying on department store sales risk; relying on single brand category risk.
