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思捷环球(00330.HK):业务仍在受压 下调至“收集”

國泰君安國際 ·  Mar 7, 2018 00:00  · Researches

The net loss for the first half of FY2018 was HK$954 million, compared to the net profit for the first half of FY2017 of HK$61 million. Revenue fell 3.4% year over year to HK$8,039 million, mainly due to a decrease in the sales area of the wholesale channel and the weak performance of the retail channel. The main causes of net loss in the first half of FY2018 were: 1) loss of HK$795 million due to overall impairment of goodwill and customer relationships in the Chinese market; 2) Net tax expenses for the first half of FY2018 were HK$5 million, compared with net tax profit of HK$74 million in the first half of FY2017. The net profit forecast for FY2018 was adjusted from HK$189 million to a net loss of HK$970 million, and the net profit forecasts for FY2019 and FY2020 were lowered by 77.1% and 34.9% respectively to HK$126 million and HK$531 million. We lowered our revenue forecasts for the 2018-2020 fiscal year by 0.2%, 1.1%, and 1.4%, respectively, mainly due to lower expected growth rates for retail channels and e-commerce channels. To support the company's new strategy focused on revenue growth, we expect higher operating expenses. We raised our ad spend rate forecasts for the 2018-2020 fiscal year by 0.6 percentage points, 0.5 percentage points, and 0.5 percentage points to 5.6%, 5.3%, and 5.2%, respectively. The target price was lowered to HK$3.40 and the rating was lowered to “Collection”. The company will shift its focus from net profit to revenue over the next few years, driven by the expansion of new customer business. However, Esprit Global's business conditions remain challenging, and the overall business recovery in FY19 and FY2020 may be weaker than we had previously anticipated. The new target price is equivalent to 52.3 times and 12.5 times the price-earnings ratio for FY2019 and FY2020, respectively, and 10.4% room for growth.

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