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海正药业(600267):扣非后利润扭亏为盈 业绩拐点明确

Haizheng Pharmaceutical (600267): The inflection point of profit after deduction of profit turned into profit is clear

太平洋證券 ·  Aug 19, 2019 16:00  · Researches

Event: the company released its 2019 semi-annual report, with operating income of 5.666 billion yuan, an increase of 6.27% over the same period last year; net profit of 53 million yuan, an increase of 254.51% over the same period last year; and net profit of 5.46 million yuan, an increase of 68.09 million yuan over the same period last year.

There has been a slight increase in income and the rapid release of biological drugs.

According to the business segment, the income of the pharmaceutical commercial subsidiary is 2.225 billion yuan (- 3.6%), and the net profit is 23.872 million yuan (+ 22.35%). The growth of the company's operating income was mainly contributed by the preparation business. In the first half of the year, the company's overall gross profit margin was 46.07%. Compared with the same period last year, the increase in 7.71Pct was mainly due to the increase in the proportion of revenue from high gross profit preparations, including Haizheng Pharmaceutical products promoted by Hanhui Pharmaceutical and Haikun Pharmaceutical sales platform, as well as sales growth of Pfizer Inc products and newly introduced preparation products promoted and sold by Hanhui Pharmaceutical during the transition period. In terms of biopharmaceuticals, Ambano's sales in the first half of the year exceeded 240000, an increase of 162% over the same period last year, and the number of new patients continued to maintain a steady growth, with estimated sales of more than 100 million yuan. Hanhui Pharmaceutical has an income of 2.209 billion yuan (+ 8.6%) and a net profit of 340 million yuan (- 12.8%). It is speculated that the decline in profit compared with the same period last year is mainly due to: 1) about 80 million government subsidies in the same period last year. There is no such income in the current period; 2) the cost of consistent evaluation has increased; 3) there are more new agents in 18 years, and the initial sales expenses have increased. Haikun Pharmaceutical, a platform for promoting its own preparation products, has set up a sound management system and performance appraisal system, which has achieved a substantial increase in product sales by sorting out channels, straightening out business, improving marketing efficiency, and achieving a substantial increase in product sales. Among them, Ximexin injection and tablet increased by 10% and 38% respectively, Isojia increased by 14%, and cycloserine capsule increased by 29%. Haizheng Nantong, a subsidiary of raw materials, achieved an operating income of 77.3112 million yuan (+ 125%) and a loss of 45.5702 million yuan, which was expanded compared with the same period last year. It is speculated that it is mainly due to the increase in depreciation after the conversion of fixed production and the conversion of interest expenditure to expense accounting.

Sales and financial expenses increased rapidly, and the scale of interest-bearing liabilities decreased slightly. In 2018, the sales expenses were 1.441 billion yuan (+ 27.50%), mainly due to the increase in marketing expenses. The management expenses are 356 million yuan (+ 13.49%) and the financial expenses are 237 million yuan (+ 55.02%), which are mainly due to the conversion accounting of interest expenses in the promotion and consolidation of projects under construction, as well as the increase in the financing cost of 16 Haizheng debt. The scale of interest-bearing liabilities (short-term loans + long-term loans + bonds payable) was 9.4 billion yuan, down about 400 million yuan from the beginning of the year and 600 million yuan compared with the same period last year. Due to the large-scale investment in fixed assets, the balance of the company's interest-bearing liabilities continues to grow. at present, the investment in fixed assets is gradually coming to an end, and the borrowing demand is also reduced correspondingly. The new management has also put forward the strategy of "focus, slimming and optimization". With the continuous improvement of management, it is expected that the scale of interest-bearing liabilities of the company will gradually decline.

Biological drugs have entered the harvest period, and the efficiency of research and development has been improved.

The R & D expenditure of 193 million yuan is basically the same as that of the same period last year, but the company's key projects are progressing smoothly, reflecting that the R & D efficiency has been improved after the company combed the R & D pipeline. At present, Adamumab has completed the clinical field verification and data review, and the relevant pre-marketing preparation work has been started; the phase III clinical study of insulin has been completed and is currently in the preparation of production data; completed the clinical III phase of infliximab and glargine insulin; started the clinical phase I study of HS636 (anti-PD-L1 monoclonal antibody), HS632 (omazumab) and HS630 (ADC). In terms of domestic generic drugs, 2 varieties and 5 specifications have passed the national generic drug consistency evaluation, and 7 varieties have completed the declaration; a total of 2 varieties have obtained the production approval according to the newly registered classification 4, and the company has continuously enriched the generic drug variety. at the same time, the company realizes the layout of the whole industry chain of API-preparation, has strong cost control ability, and has great advantages in collection and collection. In terms of international generics, six varieties of preparations have been approved in the United States, including three injections, and two APIs have been approved to enter the United States. Applications for Tylosin APIs were submitted in 30 countries and entered the review stage, while micafen APIs submitted registration documents in 18 countries and entered the review phase.

The verification was completed in the four APIs developed.

Valuation and investment advice-the former king, the inflection point of history!

Since the beginning of this year, the company has accelerated the transfer of non-core assets, including the transfer of real estate, the introduction of non-core R & D subsidiaries into War Investment (Daoming Pharmaceutical) and capital reduction (Haizheng Xuantai), and the transfer of generic drug documents (Haizheng Xuantai). Focus on the three main industries of biopharmaceuticals, APIs and preparations.

Since taking office, the new management of the company has focused on strengthening the internal management system, and now it has achieved initial results. The profit after 19H1 deduction indicates that the company's business and management are expected to usher in a historic inflection point:

1) Hillhouse Capital optimized management after entering Hanhui, adopting the mature CSO model through the introduction of varieties to continue to grow, Hanhui Pharmaceutical profits are expected to grow steadily in the follow-up; 2) the value of the biopharmaceutical sector is seriously undervalued. After the expansion of production, Adamumab has been reported for production and is expected to be approved in Q4 in 190.A number of biological drugs have entered the clinical III phase, which is close to the harvest time. 3) the clinical data of the chemical innovative drug Haize Maibu III phase is good, has been declared for production and has been included in the priority review. 4) the number of generic drug approvals is large, and there is no stock, and the production capacity is large. If we can grasp the national collection and acquisition policy, we can give full play to the advantages of the integration of API preparations, and are expected to make full use of fixed assets and cover depreciation expenses. 5) in the future, the company will continue to reduce unnecessary construction projects and improve R & D efficiency, dispose of idle assets / non-core projects and introduce war investment to recover cash, highlight the main industries such as biopharmaceuticals, preparations and APIs, and strengthen the construction of internal control system. Production / management costs will continue to reduce. The transfer of old shares and the increase of capital and shares of Monoclonal subsidiary Haizheng Borey are also progressing steadily. After the completion of the transfer, it is expected that the company's subsequent debt ratio-financial expenses will gradually decline, and profits will be gradually released.

Haizheng Pharmaceutical Company has a reasonable valuation of 17 billion yuan in 19 years (Hanhui 7 billion + biological drug 7.5 billion + chemical drug-1 billion + raw material drug 3 billion + commercial 500 million). Where:

1) Hanhui Pharmaceutical 7 billion: the 20-year net profit is estimated to be 661 million yuan, an increase of 25%, 22%. Haizheng Pharmaceutical holds 51% equity, and the net profit of equity is 337 million yuan. Based on 20 times PE in 19 years, the corresponding valuation is 7 billion yuan.

2) Biopharmaceuticals 7.5 billion: Haizheng Borui is valued at 5.6 billion yuan + Haisheng Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. is valued at 1.9 billion yuan, all of which are valued at the primary market price.

3) Chemical drugs-1 billion: conservative valuation of chemical drug assets 5 billion (product line valuation + asset valuation based on fixed assets), deducting liabilities of 6 billion (caused by investment in fixed assets),-1 billion valuation: existing varieties still have great potential for growth of 200 million net profit in 18 years, more than 50 generic drug varieties are reported to produce, covering large varieties, collecting in beneficiary countries, and 15 innovative drugs are being developed. Among them, Haize Maibu III clinical data is good, years of research and development investment results began to show, in the research product echelon (generic drugs, innovative drugs) is good, coupled with fixed assets investment of 5 billion, a total conservative valuation of 5 billion yuan Chemical drug debt is estimated at 6 billion, after deduction,-1 billion valuation.

Subtraction is being done: selling approval documents and selling fixed assets.

4) API 3 billion: net profit of 2000-30 million yuan in 2017. FDA and the European Union banned before the normal net profit of more than 300 million yuan, the United States market has been lifted in June 17, sales gradually resumed, the company is currently actively opening up the Japanese market, high gross margin regulatory pharmaceutical market revenue will increase profitability. At the same time, the company is increasing the development of the domestic market and undertaking CMO business, which will become a new growth point. According to 10 times PE, the valuation is 3 billion yuan.

5) Pharmaceutical business 500 million yuan: the net profit in 2018 is 31 million yuan, which is expected to maintain steady growth and a reasonable valuation of 500 million yuan.

As the company may still provide for asset impairment, suspension of R & D projects and other one-time expenses in 19 years, the profit will be reduced for 19 years, but solving the problems left over from history is conducive to the company's long-term development and profit release. It is expected that the real performance in the past 20 years will begin to be fully reflected and the inflection point will be established. Assuming that the transfer / capital increase of the old shares of Haizheng Borui is completed within the year and the investment income is confirmed, the company is expected to realize the annual net profit of 1.022 billion yuan, 309 million yuan and 525 million yuan respectively in 19-20-21, and the EPS is 1.06,0.32 yuan and 0.54 yuan respectively. The company ushered in the management-operation double historical inflection point, the current market capitalization is less than 10 billion yuan, undervalued, 19 years reasonable valuation of 17 billion yuan, maintain the "buy" rating.

Risk tips: national collection of rapid and comprehensive promotion of the risk; management is not straightened out; depreciation of fixed assets-too much financial expenses affect performance and so on.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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