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辰安科技(300523):转机正在到来

華創證券 ·  Aug 20, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Comment: There are plenty of orders in hand, and continued high growth in subsequent performance can be expected. According to the 2018 annual report, the total amount of the top ten unaccepted contracts disclosed by the company was 1,823 million dollars, and the actual amount is expected to be higher; as of June 30, 2019, according to data from the China Recruiting Network, the company's winning bid orders increased 75% year-on-year (not considering the status of orders from HKUST Li'an); considering that the emergency management department, safety monitoring, and fire safety conditions are rising, we are confident in the growth of the company's performance. 5G infrastructure is gradually improving, and the city's lifeline is expected to be implemented at an accelerated pace. One of the typical application scenarios of 5G is the urban Internet of Things. The company's urban lifeline is “Internet of Things+Platform Software”. The gradual maturity of 5G is expected to accelerate the implementation of the urban lifeline. It has already been established in Hefei, Huaibei, Wuhan, and Xuzhou, and it is worth looking forward to more urban expansion in the future. The fire protection business sector is worth looking forward to. The core team of the company's fire protection business comes from the University of Science and Technology of China and has industry-leading technology and vision. In the field of smart fire protection, projects such as smart fire protection in Fuyang District of Hangzhou and smart fire protection for a factory have been signed in the first half of this year; the fire operation center has also made positive progress, and has landed in more than dozens of cities. The subsequent expansion is worth looking forward to. The fire protection business is expected to further open up new growth space for the company. The executive equity transfer and employee stock ownership plan have all been completed, and growth momentum and vitality are expected to be fully unleashed. Previously, the asset management plan of the company's executives had received 5.5% of the shares. The previous phase two employees had already bought 2.11% of the shares, and the total shares held by executives and employees was 7.61% of the company's shares. In the context of state-owned holdings, the shareholding ratio of executives and employees is high, which is expected to fully mobilize vitality. Investment suggestions: Considering the continued increase in the company's R&D investment and market development efforts, we adjusted our 19-20 net profit forecasts to 203 million yuan and 306 million yuan (original forecasts were 363 million and 472 million yuan). At the same time, the company's net profit for 2021 was 462 million yuan, and the corresponding valuations were 42 times, 28 times, and 18 times respectively. The company's leading position in the field of public safety is stable, and at the same time, its high performance growth and high certainty are high. According to the valuations of comparable companies in the industry, the overall PEG for 2019 was 1, with a corresponding target price of 44.02 yuan, maintaining a “push” rating. Risk warning: The overseas political and economic situation is unstable; the expansion of fire protection business falls short of expectations.

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