Changjiang Media (600757): the growth rate of teaching materials and general book business is relatively high.

東興證券 · Aug 20, 2019 00:00 · Researches

报告摘要：

事件：

公司发布半年报：上半年实现营业收入34.55 亿元，同比减少34.01%；归母净利润4.88 亿元，同比增长0.82%；扣非归母净利润4.54 亿元，同比增长13.59%。

观点：

1、营业收入大幅下降系大幅压缩大宗贸易及传统物资贸易业务规模。

上半年实现营业收入34.55 亿元，同比下降34.01%。其中物资贸易业务收入5.60 亿元，同比下降70.45%，大宗贸易业务收入3.42 亿元，同比下降71.25%。物资贸易与大宗贸易业务毛利率较低，均不足2 个百分点。我们认为，公司主动缩减低毛利率的贸易业务规模，有利于优化业务结构，专注出版主业发展。

2、教材教辅及一般图书业务增速较高。

上半年，公司教材教辅业务实现收入18.92 亿元，同比增长17.42%，一般图书业务实现收入8.60 亿元，同比增长17.68%。我们认为，公司主营业务实现较快增长，源于三方面：1）湖北省普通高中、初中生在校生数量逐年增加；2）公司旗下少儿业务拓展省外市场卓有成效；3）新华书店发行能力的提升和电商销售的增加。

3、布局数字出版新兴板块，构建新增长点。

上半年，公司新增股权投资3 项，投资金额合计1.58 亿元，主要为“出版+文创”、“文化+商业”产业投资布局。同时，公司重点孵化在线教育（包括幼教、K12、高教职教等）和数字阅读（包括阅读服务、专业服务等）等数字出版板块，积极推动长江文艺社诗歌中心、长江少儿社创客教育、湖北教育社书法教育、湖北美术社文创产品等产业延伸项目建设。我们认为，传统出版业务天花板显著，公司积极布局数字出版新兴板块，与传统出版有较强的关联性和协同性，是比较务实的业务转型思路，为公司未来新的增长点奠定基础。

4、主营业务驱动扣非净利润较快增长。

上半年，公司归母净利润4.88 亿元，同比增长0.82%；扣非归母净利润4.54 亿元，同比增长13.59%。由于去年上半年同期非经常性损益较高，达到8441 万元，今年同期为3402 亿元，因此，公司归母净利润增速平稳。事实公司主营业务表现良好，驱动公司扣非净利润增速实现较快增长。

盈利预测及估值：我们预计2019-2021 年公司净利润8.14 亿元、9.21 亿元、10.40 亿元，对应EPS 分别为0.67 元、0.76元、0.86 元，对应PE 分别为10X、9X、8X。我们给予公司2019 年12 倍PE，对应目标价8.04 元，给予“推荐”评级。

风险提示：新兴出版技术冲击、市场竞争加剧风险。

Summary of the report:

Events:

The company released semi-annual report: the operating income in the first half of the year was 3.455 billion yuan, down 34.01% from the same period last year; the return net profit was 488 million yuan, an increase of 0.82% over the same period last year; and the non-return net profit was 454 million yuan, an increase of 13.59% over the same period last year.

Viewpoint:

1. The sharp decline in business income is due to a substantial reduction in the scale of bulk trade and traditional goods trade.

The operating income in the first half of the year was 3.455 billion yuan, down 34.01% from the same period last year. Of this total, the income from material trade was 560 million yuan, down 70.45% from the same period last year, and that from bulk trade was 342 million yuan, down 71.25% from the same period last year. The gross profit margin of goods trade and bulk trade is relatively low, both less than 2 percentage points. We believe that the company's initiative to reduce the scale of its trading business with low gross margin is conducive to optimizing the business structure and focusing on the development of the main publishing industry.

2. The growth rate of teaching materials and general book business is relatively high.

In the first half of the year, the company's teaching materials and auxiliary business achieved income of 1.892 billion yuan, an increase of 17.42% over the same period last year, while that of general book business reached 860 million yuan, an increase of 17.68% over the same period last year. We believe that the company's main business has achieved rapid growth in three aspects: 1) the number of ordinary high school and junior high school students in Hubei Province has increased year by year; 2) the company's children's business has achieved remarkable results in expanding the market outside the province; 3) the improvement of the distribution capacity of Xinhua Bookstore and the increase of e-commerce sales.

3. Lay out the new plate of digital publishing and build a new growth point.

In the first half of the year, the company added three new equity investments, with a total investment of 158 million yuan, mainly for the investment layout of "publishing + cultural creation" and "culture + commerce" industries. At the same time, the company focuses on incubating digital publishing sections such as online education (including preschool education, K12, higher vocational education, etc.) and digital reading (including reading services, professional services, etc.). We will actively promote the construction of industrial extension projects such as the Poetry Center of the Yangtze River Literature and Art Society, the Creator Education of the Yangtze River Children's Society, the calligraphy Education of Hubei Education Society, and Hubei Fine Arts Social and Cultural creation products. We believe that the ceiling of the traditional publishing business is remarkable, and the company actively arranges the emerging section of digital publishing, which has strong relevance and cooperation with traditional publishing, which is a more pragmatic way of business transformation and lays the foundation for the company's new growth point in the future.

4. The main business-driven deduction of non-net profit increases rapidly.

In the first half of the year, the company's net profit was 488 million yuan, an increase of 0.82% over the same period last year, while the non-return net profit was 454 million yuan, an increase of 13.59% over the same period last year. Due to the high non-recurrent profit and loss of 84.41 million yuan in the first half of last year and 340.2 billion yuan in the same period this year, the growth rate of the company's return net profit is stable. In fact, the company's main business performance is good, driving the company to deduct non-net profit growth to achieve rapid growth.

Profit forecast and valuation: we expect the company's net profit from 2019 to 2021 to be 814 million yuan, 921 million yuan and 1.04 billion yuan, the corresponding EPS is 0.67,0.76 yuan and 0.86 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 10x, 9x and 8x respectively. We give the company 12 times PE in 2019, corresponding to the target price of 8.04 yuan, with a "recommended" rating.

Risk hint: the impact of emerging publishing technology and market competition aggravate the risk.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.

长江传媒(600757)：教材教辅及一般图书业务增速较高

Changjiang Media (600757): the growth rate of teaching materials and general book business is relatively high.

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