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双一科技(300690):抢装行情持续 公司业绩持续向上

東吳證券 ·  Aug 12, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Investment points The wind power rush market in the first half of 2019 led to rapid growth in the company's performance: the company's main source of revenue is wind power ancillary products, and the order situation is highly correlated with wind power prosperity. Benefiting from the rush to install wind power, wind power construction ushered in a new climax in the first half of 2019. According to statistics from the National Energy Administration, from January to June 2019, the country added 9.09 million kilowatts (yoy 14.5%) of wind power installed capacity, including 400,000 kilowatts of offshore wind power, and the cumulative grid-connected installed capacity reached 193 million kilowatts. Under the rush to install, wind power construction is speeding up, and the company's performance is growing rapidly. In the first half of 2019, the company achieved revenue of 356 million yuan, an increase of 51.92% over the previous year; realized net profit of 7.012 million yuan, an increase of 58.89% over the previous year, and the performance growth rate exceeded expectations. It is worth mentioning that the company's gross margin has rebounded quarterly since 2018 Q4. The gross margins for 2019 Q1 and Q2 were 38.73% and 40.31%, respectively. We estimate this is due to falling prices of raw materials such as epoxy resin. The company's main customers are full of orders, and the company's future growth rate is supported: the company's main downstream customers are wind power OEMs, and the main customers include leading wind power companies such as Vestas, Siemens Gamesa, and Goldwind Technology. According to the second-quarter report disclosed by Vestas, in the first half of 2019, Vestas completed 7605 MW of orders, a year-on-year increase of 39%; according to the 2019 three-quarter report published by Siemens Gamesa (April-September 2019), the third quarter revenue was 2,632 billion euros, up 23% year on year, with ongoing orders of 25.1 billion euros, and offshore wind power growing rapidly. The company's performance in 2018 was affected to a certain extent by the Siemens Gamesa merger on orders. In 2019, as orders from downstream customers continued to increase, the company's performance could be expected to increase. New production capacity has been put into production one after another, and the horizontal product layout enhances overall competitiveness: the company's current capacity utilization rate is high. Currently, the production capacity under construction includes plants in Wucheng and Yancheng, mainly large engine room covers and non-metallic molds. According to the semi-annual report, the company's Yancheng subsidiary has obtained 64 acres of land permits, and construction of the plant has now begun. It is expected that the construction of the plant will be completed by the end of 2019; the construction of workshops 5 and 6 of the company's Wucheng branch has already begun, and the construction area of the two workshops is more than 20,000 square meters. It is expected that construction will be completed and put into use by the end of 2019. As a result, the company's production capacity in the wind power sector is expected to continue to rise to the next level in 2020. In addition, relying on leading technical engineering experience and customer resources, the company has horizontally expanded new application fields such as vehicle parts and ships. The product range continues to be rich, and it is expected to form a comprehensive production platform for composite materials. Profit forecast and investment rating: The company's profit margin exceeded expectations, so the profit forecast was raised. We expect the company's revenue from 2019 to 2021 to be 796/10.91/1,400 million yuan respectively, net profit of 1.60/1.92/246 million yuan, and EPS of 1.44/1.73/2.21 yuan respectively. The current stock prices corresponding to PE are 19X, 16X, and 12X respectively. Given that the performance brought by the wind power rush exceeds expectations, we maintain our “buy” rating. Risk warning: The growth rate of the wind power industry falls short of expectations, the progress of fund-raising projects falls short of expectations, and there is a risk that shareholders will reduce their holdings.

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