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深圳新星(603978):从小而美到大而强

天風證券 ·  Aug 13, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Leading the aluminum grain refining agent industry. The future production capacity will expand to 90,000 tons/year. The company is a small but beautiful new materials enterprise that has developed core production equipment for aluminum grain refining agent products starting with technology. The quality level of the products produced is unique in the world. At the same time, the company has fluorite ore, hydrofluoric acid, fluorine salt chemicals, etc., making it the only manufacturer in the industry specializing in aluminum grain refining agents with a complete industrial chain. The company has greatly expanded production capacity through technology and cost advantages. By 2019, the company's production capacity reached 90,000 tons/year, becoming the global market leader for aluminum grain refining agents. Potassium tetrafluoroaluminate is expected to replace aluminum fluoride and reverse the loss situation in the electrolytic aluminum industry. The company continues to develop the aluminum grain refiner industry chain, fully explores the value of by-products using the company's core technology, and has developed various products such as potassium tetrafluoroaluminate, aluminum intermediate alloys, ferroalloy cored wire, high-purity hydrofluoric acid, SB powder, etc., to maximize the value of various products in the industry chain, open up the company's growth ceiling, and enhance the company's performance. Among them, the potassium tetrafluoroaluminate developed by the company has a core patent, and this product is expected to partially replace aluminum fluoride (electrolytic aluminum additive). 20 kg/ton of aluminum fluoride is generally added to electrolytic aluminum production. Currently, 10 kg/ton of aluminum fluoride and 10 kg/ton of potassium fluoroaluminate are mixed, which can save 500 degrees of electricity without increasing costs (the price is comparable to aluminum fluoride). Based on the calculation of 0.31 yuan/hour of electricity, it can increase the profit of electrolytic aluminum companies by 155 yuan/ton. Since 2019, the electrolytic aluminum industry has lost an average loss of 36 yuan/ton. For electrolytic aluminum companies, using potassium tetrafluoroaluminate to increase profits is quite impressive, which is expected to reverse the loss situation in the electrolytic aluminum industry. According to estimates of the production of 36.49 million tons of electrolytic aluminum in China and 64.34 million tons worldwide in 2018, assuming an estimate of 10 kg/ton per ton of electrolytic aluminum added, the market space will reach 365,000 tons in China and 643,000 tons worldwide. At present, it has received orders from downstream customers, and the usage effect is obvious. As promotion accelerates, it is expected that the company will usher in a new leap forward. It has 223 patents and is expected to achieve technological transformation in the future. The company has a total of 223 domestic and foreign patents. Many products are already in the small and pilot stages, such as titanium sponge, next-generation magnesium grain refining agents, magnesium alloy sheets, inert anode materials, etc. It is expected that technological transformation will be achieved in the future. Once mass produced, it will become a new performance growth point for the company. Based at home, pioneering the world, and aiming to become an international leader in new materials. The company's development is not limited to domestic development. In the future, it will further develop the international market, accelerate the internationalization process, establish sales and after-sales service centers overseas, gradually expand the company's overseas business market, and aim to become an international leader in new materials. Profit forecast and rating: As the leader in the aluminum grain refining agent industry, with the continuous expansion of the company's product scale and the accelerated promotion of by-products, the company expects net profit in 2019-2021 to be 2.01/3.50/447 million yuan, EPS is 1.26/2.19/2.80 yuan/share, corresponding to the closing price of August 12, 2019, PE is 30/17/14X, giving it an “increase in holdings” rating. Risk warning: the risk that the production capacity of the company's products falls short of expectations, the risk that the promotion progress of the new product potassium tetrafluoroaluminate falls short of expectations, the risk that the price of raw materials will rise sharply, the risk that the commissioning progress of fund-raising projects will fall short of expectations, and corporate legal risks.

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