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天音控股(000829):中标中福在线将促进业绩大幅提升 电子烟或成为公司利润新增长点

興業證券 ·  Aug 14, 2019 00:00  · Researches

The company announced that Shenzhen Suicai, a wholly-owned company, received the “Notice of Winning Bid” issued by the purchasing agency China Technology International Bidding Co., Ltd., confirming that Shenzhen Suicai was the winning bidder for the China Welfare Lottery's new video lottery system business software construction project. The winning bid amount was 89.8 million yuan. Tianyin Communications, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, decided to increase its business scope due to business needs. The new business projects were: sales of e-cigarettes, metal cigarettes (excluding tobacco products), and smoke oil. The winning bid of Shenzhen Sui Cai will bring huge operating income to the company. The video lottery market is developing rapidly and has a huge market share. In particular, China's video lottery market is growing and has huge potential for development. In 2017, China's Zhongfu Online total sales volume was US$7.1 billion, net revenue (calculated based on 35% of sales) was about US$2.5 billion, and sales have continued to rise recently. Tianyin's B-side customer, Zhongfucai Center, is one of the only two lottery ticket distributors in China. Zhongfu Online is the only video lottery ticket sold nationwide by Zhongfucai Center. It has a unique hit product “Win a Series”. Sui Cai Technology has developed four innovative games to be launched soon. Each of the four innovative games developed by Sui Cai Technology Center can compete with “Win a Series”, so the successful bid of Shenzhen Suicai Technology Development Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Tianyin Holdings, is bound to bring significant benefits to the company. The company has taken an advantageous position in the e-cigarette market, and future profit contributions can be expected. China has about 350 million smokers, and the penetration rate of e-cigarettes is less than 1%. Assuming that the penetration rate of e-cigarettes reaches 10% in the future, the corresponding market size can reach the level of 100 billion, this is a market for profit that cannot be ignored. Moreover, after 20 years of vigorous development, the company now has rich channel resources and comprehensive industrial integration capabilities. Tianyin takes channels as king and cooperates with e-cigarette manufacturers through the national agent model, which is bound to bring huge profits in the future. Profit forecasting and ratings: After Shenzhen Investment Holdings, the company gradually formed a “1+N” strategic layout, cooperating with Huawei going overseas to further promote the “going global” strategy for Chinese smartphones. The company focuses on mobile distribution and the main lottery business while actively using the advantages of existing channels to actively expand new products. It is estimated that the company's EPS for 19-21 will be 0.27, 0.35, and 0.47 yuan respectively, and the PE corresponding to the 8.13 closing price will be 19, 15, and 11 times, respectively, to maintain the “prudent increase in holdings” rating. Risk warning: upstream gross profit squeeze, overseas demand falling short of expectations, exchange rate risk, and new business development falling short of expectations.

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