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福光股份(688010)新股覆盖研究:军民融合发展的专业光学镜头供应商

華金證券 ·  Jul 4, 2019 00:00  · Researches

The main focus is on the leading professional optical lens supplier in China, with a prominent position in the industry. The company is headquartered in Fuzhou City, Fujian Province, and is a leading high-tech enterprise specializing in R&D, production and sales of optical lenses in China. Its products are widely used in aerospace engineering, space observation and various military equipment fields, as well as civilian fields such as security monitoring and the Internet of Things. In 2017, the company's security video surveillance lenses had a market share of 11.8%, ranking third in the world; among them, the dominant product, zoom lenses, had a market share of 8.9%, ranking second in the world; the global market share of 4K high-definition lenses reached 65.8%; in 2018, the company took the lead in developing 25-300mm, 8K high-definition continuous zoom lenses. Civil-military integration forges unique advantages and will continue to benefit from the steady expansion of demand in downstream markets. Civil-military integration is one of the company's unique strengths. By applying military technology to the civilian sector, the company's civilian products have achieved a “downsizing attack” on competitors, and the large-scale application of the civilian goods market has in turn promoted continuous progress in product technology. Benefiting from the steady growth of downstream defense and military spending budgets, the continued expansion of the security monitoring market, and the accelerated implementation of products in cutting-edge fields such as intelligent driving, the company's demand for military and civilian products is expected to increase further in the future. Raising capital to increase the main business, is expected to resume relatively rapid growth in performance. The company now plans to publicly issue 38.8 million shares, accounting for 25.26% of the total share capital after issuance. It plans to raise 651 million yuan and invest in 3 projects, including the full-spectrum precision lens intelligent manufacturing base project (phase I), the AI optical sensing device development and industrialization construction project, and the precision and ultra-precision optical processing test center construction project. On the one hand, the capital raised by the company will be used to increase its main business and expand production capacity; on the other hand, it will be used to develop new technologies and products. With the capital raised in place and the subsequent gradual implementation of new production capacity and new products, the company's performance is expected to resume relatively rapid growth. Investment advice: We use PE and PB methods to value companies. Combining the PE (2018) and PB (2018) ranges of comparable companies (Lianchuang Electronics, United Optoelectronics, Shunyu Optics), we gave the company the PE (2018) range of 40 to 50x, the PB (2018) range of 5 to 7x, and the estimated reasonable market value range of 36.4 to 4.55 billion yuan. Based on the total number of existing shares and the number of shares to be issued, the corresponding reasonable value range per share is 23.70 to 29.63 yuan. Risk warning: the new product support situation falls short of expectations, the risk of technology iteration, and the risk of increased market competition.

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