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金溢科技(002869)公司点评:订单验证行业高景气 公司业绩有望加速兑现

天風證券 ·  Aug 14, 2019 00:00  · Researches

  The incident company issued an announcement on the evening of August 13, announcing that it signed an OBU procurement contract for 6.8 million units with Jiangsu Tongbao on the 12th. The contract period is from August 1 to October 31 this year. The order is expected to bring the company at least 400 million yuan in revenue, and the boom in the industry can be verified. According to the results of the 2019 Anhui Expressway ETC Bluetooth electronic tag procurement project, the lowest OBU price is about 65 yuan/piece, conservatively assuming that the OBU unit price for this order is about 60 yuan. Based on this, we expect this order to bring the company 408 million yuan in revenue, which is equivalent to 67.55% of the company's annual revenue in 2018, and the boom in the industry has been verified. At the same time, according to the company's announcement, the company has the ability to fulfill this contract, the company's production capacity is safe, and the company's Q3 performance is expected to improve significantly. The company's performance is expected to be realized at an accelerated pace. According to CCTV, by the end of July 2019, the total number of ETC users nationwide reached 97.8 million, completing only 51.25% of the total OBU distribution tasks this year. If this year's OBU distribution tasks are successfully completed, we expect that ETC equipment manufacturers will still need to ship about 82 million OBU units within this year. At the same time, according to the company's announcement, the company has obtained a capital increase qualification for the Shandong Expressway ETC card issuer and the operator Xinlian Payment, and the company's customer resources and sales channels are also expected to be further expanded. Considering the company's position in the industry, it is worth looking forward to the accelerated implementation of the company's Q4 performance, maintaining the company's net profit of 310, 3.22, and 197 million yuan in 2019-2021, giving the company a target market value of 7 billion yuan, corresponding to 22.5 times PE in 2019, and maintaining an increase in holdings rating. Risk warning: The company's order execution process is lower than expected; the unit price of the company's products is lower than expected

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