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深圳新星(603978):二审胜诉靴子落地 关注下游消费快速扩张

招商證券 ·  Aug 12, 2019 00:00  · Researches

The company appealed against the first instance ruling of the People's Court of Qianhai Cooperation Zone in Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, which found that the decision of the board of directors issued by the company on June 15, 2005 to “agree to transfer 100% of the defendant's shares held by the Hong Kong Warwick Trading Bank to Hong Kong Hongbai Metal Materials Co., Ltd. for 12.5 million yuan” was not established. The second trial has now come to an end. On August 12, 2019, the company received Civil Judgement No. 5918 of Guangdong 03 (2019) issued by the Shenzhen Intermediate People's Court of Guangdong Province. The company won the case. The lawsuit was settled, removing a major downside risk for the company. In March of this year, a media report article mentioned, “The board resolution involved in the case was not signed by Chen Jinlin himself. To copy handwriting, the relevant equity transfer payments have not been paid. The disclosure of the company's information may be seriously untrue, and the stability of the company's equity will be affected.” Although the company issued an announcement since then to refute the rumor, there are still market concerns. The lawsuit was settled, dispelling one of the major risks and concerns in the market. Leading aluminum grain refining agent, integrated layout of the whole industry. The company is a leading aluminum grain refining agent, with a domestic market share of 40% and the global market share of 20%. The company has an integrated layout of upstream raw materials and downstream products, and is the only full-industry chain in the industry. The cost advantage further enhances competitiveness. As the new production capacity reaches production, the market share will gradually increase. The rapid rise of potassium tetrafluoroaluminate will bring greater flexibility to the company's performance. Ideally, a single ton of electrolytic aluminum potassium tetrafluoroaluminate replaces 10 kg of aluminum fluoride, which can save 500 degrees of electricity. Potential space for 2019 is 370,000 tons. The company has applied for a patent for the preparation of potassium tetrafluoroaluminate and a patent for its application in the electrolytic aluminum electrolysis process. At the same time, the raw material potassium hexafluoroaluminate is a by-product of the aluminum grain refining agent, and the company is the leading aluminum grain refiner, so the patent and raw materials are in the hands of the company. Currently, the company's potassium tetrafluoroaluminate has been recognized by some electrolytic aluminum companies, and the number of test companies is gradually increasing. As more electrolytic aluminum enterprises industrialize their applications, the future will bring greater flexibility to the company's performance. Building an industrial ecosystem, high-purity hydrogen fluoride and SB powder are expected to create another new star. The company takes R&D innovation as its core driving force. First, it achieves the best in the industry in the field of aluminum grain refining agents, and then expands the industry based on this to build a whole industry ecosystem. High-purity hydrogen fluoride and SB powder currently rely on imports. The company has made a breakthrough in its current product. Considering the market space, it is expected to create a new star once it matures. Investment and ratings: According to our estimates, the company's operating income in 2019-2021 was 1.5 billion, 1,866 billion and 2,315 billion yuan, and net profit was 182 million, 247 million and 335 million yuan. The current market value corresponding to PE is 33.5, 24.6 and 18.2 times, maintaining the “Highly Recommended - A” rating. Risk warning: the entry of new production capacity, fluctuations in the price of aluminum ingots, product promotion falling short of expectations, etc.

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