Investment highlights: Yueda Kia has benefited from the launch of the new KX3 product, and is expected to achieve 10% + growth in performance in 2015. The competitiveness of Kia models lies in the stylish exterior design and high cost performance ratio. The launch of the compact SUV KX3 completes the product lineage of existing Kia SUVs. Grassroots dealer research revealed that the current KX3 single-store order situation is better than the K4's initial launch performance. Compared with K4's current sales volume of 5000+ units in a single month and the situation of small SUVs of the same class, it is conservatively estimated that the KX3 is expected to have an average monthly sales volume of 8,000 units this year, with annual sales volume expected to reach the level of 80,000 units and contribute 640 million dollars in profit in 2015. Textiles, coal and other businesses are expected to reduce losses this year. Yueda Kia's automobile and highway business is the company's main source of profit. Profit from thermal power is stable. Other industries with strong cyclical properties, such as textiles, tractors, and coal, all lose money, and the new materials business is still in the cultivation period. The loss-making business has largely limited the development of the company. Currently, from the group level to the listed company, they are sorting out the asset sector and making new management plans to try to reduce losses from the original loss-making business. The new chairman of the board takes over, and it is hoped that the state-owned enterprise reform will be carried out in full force. Since the new chairman of the board took office in early 2015, he is very determined to reform, and his ideas are pragmatic. We judge that the starting points of reform are mainly the following two aspects. 1) Increase profits and reduce losses. The company is promoting diversification of parent companies and specialized management of subsidiaries from the group level as a whole, and reducing inter-industry competition among subsidiaries through the integration of existing assets. Loss-making businesses are expected to reduce losses by a certain margin this year, while profitable businesses achieve growth. 2) Develop emerging industries. The company is the largest local state-owned enterprise in Yancheng, Jiangsu. It has various resources such as government, capital, and land. We judge that in the future, the company will use existing superior resources to lay out emerging industries through mergers and acquisitions or stock participation. Maintain profit forecasts and give an increase in holdings rating. We believe that the company is expected to benefit from the quantitative contribution of Yueda Kia's new main models. The expressway business is unable to reduce the narrowing of profits due to diversion effects, and loss-making businesses such as textiles and coal will gradually reverse losses through management improvements. We forecast that the company's revenue for 2015-2017 will be 2,421 billion, 2,487 million, and 2,578 million yuan respectively, and realized net profit attributable to the parent company of 1,266 billion, 1,536 billion, and 1,818 million yuan, and corresponding earnings per share of 1.49 yuan, 1.80 yuan, and 2.14 yuan, respectively, and corresponding PE of 10 times, 8.6 times, and 7.2 times, respectively. We use a segmented valuation method to predict the company's market capitalization space. Based on the growth and valuation levels of the company's different business segments, we believe that the company's market value is expected to reach 18 billion dollars in 2015, the target price is 21 yuan, and there is still room for 37%, giving it a rating of increase in holdings.
悦达投资(600805)深度研究:起亚盈利提升 其他业务扭亏带来估值弹性
The translation is provided by third-party software.
The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.