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金石东方(300434):国内优质复合材料管道生产线供应商 合理价格区间为10.20-12.75元

申萬宏源研究 ·  Apr 20, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Investment points: The company's main business is the development and application of steel-reinforced plastic composite pipe technology, providing customers with a full set of production processes, technical solutions and complete production equipment (production line) for steel-reinforced plastic composite pipes. The company's main products are in two categories, namely wound steel wire reinforced pipe production line and steel belt reinforced plastic pipe production line. Among them, the most important is the steel belt reinforced plastic pipe production line. From 2012 to 2014, the revenue share was 63.72%, 53.40%, and 66.66% respectively, all of which reached more than 50%. The sum of revenue from the wound steel wire reinforced pipe production line and the steel belt reinforced plastic pipe production line reached more than 90% of the total revenue, constituting the most important source of profit for the company. As the company's products accumulate more and more reputation, technology and experience in the market, and the continuous development of new technologies, products, and systems, the company has good prospects for future development. The company focused on technology research and development and new product innovation. Core technology products accounted for more than 97% of revenue during the reporting period. The company has fully summed up many years of design and production experience, and has a number of patents and independent research and development technology systems. The company has 43 national patents, including a total of 17 patents for steel belt reinforced plastic pipes and a total of 10 patents for wound steel wire reinforced pipes; a total of 16 patents are still under development projects. Through the protection and application of these self-developed technologies, the company already has its own brand advantages and occupied the high-end industrial chain. Compared with major domestic competitors, the company's core competitiveness lies in developing new pipes for new needs, designing technical solutions and complete production lines for new pipes, and guiding and participating in the formulation of industry standards. The steel-reinforced plastic composite pipe industry has a broad market capacity. From 2006 to 2010, China's plastic pipe production developed rapidly at a compound growth rate of 30.68%. Among them, the steel-reinforced plastic composite pipe market is the fastest growing field in recent years. It is estimated that in 2015, China's industrial plastic pipe production will reach 750,000 tons, with a compound growth rate of 13.4%. Among them, the consumption of steel-reinforced plastic composite pipes will reach more than 100,000 tons. In addition, the extensive application of steel-reinforced plastic composite pipelines in municipal construction, agricultural irrigation, and mining development will also drive an increase in demand for complete equipment. All capital raised will be invested in projects related to the company's main business. After the capital raising project is delivered, the company will add the production capacity of 60 sets of steel strip reinforced plastic pipe production lines and 36 sets of wound steel wire reinforced pipe production lines every year, further establishing the company's leading position in the industry and enhancing profitability and competitiveness. It is estimated that after delivery of the steel belt reinforced plastic pipe production line industrialization project and the wound steel wire reinforced pipe production line industrialization project, the company will increase annual revenue by 162 million yuan and net profit by 29.1128 million yuan, with obvious economic benefits. Risk disclosure. The company's main risks come from the uncertainty of the economic environment, the restructuring of the country's industry, and the risk of unification of the company's products and increased competition. We expect the company's fully diluted EPS in 15, 16, and 17 to be 0.51 yuan, 0.60 yuan, and 0.72 yuan (calculated based on the total share capital of 68 million shares after issuing 17 million new shares). Based on the principle of prudence, we give a PE valuation of 20-25 times over 15 years, with a reasonable price range of 10.20-12.75 yuan. Special Reminder: The IPO pricing predicted in this report is not the price performance on the first day of listing, but rather a reasonable price range when the current market environment remains largely unchanged.

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