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新元科技(300472)新股分析:国内领先的工业智能化输送和配料成套解决方案提供商 合理价格15.5元-18.6元

申銀萬國 ·  Jun 8, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Investment points: The company is a complete solution provider for industrial intelligent conveying and batching. The company's main business is auxiliary equipment systems, electrical conveying systems, and small material batching and weighing systems. From 2012 to 2014, the company's foreign sales accounted for 10%-30% of revenue. The company's products were mainly sold domestically, supplemented by foreign sales. The company adopts the business model of determining production through sales and direct sales. The main downstream industry of the company's products is the rubber industry, and the main customers are Hankook Tire, Triangle Tire, Zhengxin Rubber, KONE Tire, and Giti Tire. The global rubber industry is in a stage of steady development. According to IRSG data from the International Rubber Organization, from 2009 to the first half of 2014, global rubber production grew steadily. The compound growth rate from 2010 to 2013 was 4.1%, providing stable market demand for rubber processing equipment. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the compound growth rate of China's investment in rubber products and equipment from 2010 to 2013 was 23%, reaching 74.17 billion yuan in 2013. The market share of the company's products is stable. The company has industry-leading R&D and production technology, and has a certain market position in the domestic rubber machinery field. According to data from the China Rubber Machinery Industry Committee, the market share of the company's products in the domestic rubber machinery industry from 2011 to 2013 was 1.38%, 1.54%, and 1.33%, respectively, and the market position was stable. In 2011, the company's main competitor Soft Control shares and Dalian Rubber and Plastic's market shares were 20.5% and 8.7%, respectively. The company's R&D investment accounts for a large share of revenue. The company pays great attention to R&D investment. In 2014, the company's R&D expenses were 13.46 million yuan, accounting for 7% of operating income. High R&D investment has enabled the company to have leading core technology in China. Risk disclosure. The company's main risks come from the risk of customers being concentrated in the rubber industry, the risk of the company's relative concentration of customers, and the risk of high accounts receivable. We expect the company's fully diluted EPS from 2015 to 2017 to be 0.62 yuan, 0.71 yuan, and 0.82 yuan (calculated based on the total share capital of 66.67 million shares after issuing 16.67 million new shares). Taking into account the company's growth and comparable company valuations, we are given 25-30 times PE in 2015, and the company's reasonable price is 15.5-18.6 yuan.

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