Main points of investment:
The company's main business is the research and development, production and sales of precision bearing rollers. The company's main products are precision bearing steel balls, which are the core components of ball bearings, which are widely used in automobile manufacturing, precision motor, wind power generation, machine tool manufacturing, construction machinery and other fields. In the past three years, the company ranks first in sales revenue in the domestic bearing steel ball field, and in 2013 the company accounted for 2.7% of the global bearing steel ball market share.
Bearing steel balls are widely used and have broad market prospects. they are widely used in motor vehicle manufacturing, precision machine tools, light industrial household appliances, wind power generation, construction machinery, aviation equipment and other general mechanical equipment manufacturing fields. In 2013, the global market size of bearing steel balls is about 15 billion yuan, and the market size of rollers is about 10 billion yuan, and it is growing steadily at an average annual rate of 8.5% from 2009 to 2014. Among them, the motor vehicle manufacturing field is the main demand market for bearing steel balls, accounting for about 30% of the global market share. it is estimated that the global automobile mainframe factories will need about 80 billion bearing steel balls every year in the future. China's automobile steel ball market demand will reach 20 billion in each of the next three years.
The company has a solid domestic leading position and has international competitiveness. The company has a full set of core technology and production technology for the R & D and production of bearing steel balls, some of the product performance indicators are higher than the international standards, and a number of technical and technological levels are in the international lead. The company is the only domestic steel ball company to enter the global procurement system of GKN Group, the world's well-known transmission parts manufacturer, and SKF Group, the world's largest bearing manufacturer.
The fund-raising project will not only expand the company's production capacity, but also further improve the company's R & D and innovation capacity, and the gross profit margin of 25% can be maintained in the future competition.
Risk revelation. The company's main risks come from the high concentration of customers, exchange losses, bad debts in accounts receivable, and the uncertainty of technological innovation and development.
We estimate that the fully diluted EPS of the company for 15, 16 and 17 years is 0.56,0.69 and 0.82 yuan (based on the total share capital of 112 million shares after the issuance of new shares). Based on the principle of caution, we give a valuation of 20-25 times PE for 15 years, with a reasonable price range of 11.29-14.11 yuan.
Special note: the IPO pricing predicted in this report is not the price performance on the first day of listing, but a reasonable price range when the existing market environment remains basically unchanged.
