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大湖股份(600257)调研报告:国内淡水养殖龙头企业 多元化发展衍生产业

申萬宏源研究 ·  Jun 9, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: A leading domestic freshwater fish farming company. Dahu Co., Ltd. specializes in freshwater fish stocking and sales, and also engages in the liquor industry, pharmaceutical trade, food processing, investment, and high-tech development. The company's largest business in 2014 - freshwater fish stocking sales accounted for 68.6% and 59.9% of revenue and gross profit, respectively. In 2014, the company achieved operating income of 676 million yuan, a compound growth rate of 9.1% in 12-14; net profit of 1.602 million yuan, and a compound growth rate of -55.2% in 12-14. Traditional wholesale channels transform into O2O production and marketing service platforms. The company's freshwater fish farming business is mainly sold through wholesale sales to customers such as wholesalers and enterprise groups. Currently, the average price of products is about 7 yuan/kg, which is 70%-80% lower than the price of consumer terminals such as farmers' markets and supermarkets. Channels limit the reflection of product value, and the company's “naturally farmed and ecologically high quality” characteristics have not received sufficient market premiums. Therefore, the company plans to build an ecological food O2O production and marketing service platform to achieve sales to consumer terminals. Since '14, the company has established Shanghai Yimengyu Ecological Technology Development Co., Ltd., and initially established a model of “regional base temporary care and supply, farmers' market terminal retail, and online platform order reservation”, using Shanghai as a pilot market to gradually promote the Yangtze River Delta region. Further, the company may set up direct stores, which can integrate customer interaction, product display and “last mile” delivery functions compared to farmers' markets; the product category can be gradually expanded to faster semi-finished products such as split fish and fish balls with seasoning packs. It has abundant surface resources and is developing diversified derivative industries. The company currently has 1.8 million mu of water surface use rights. In addition to freshwater aquaculture, it can explore diversified industries around surface resources in the future. (1) Supply chain finance, fishery trade. The company has formed a freshwater aquaculture industry chain of “fish fry sale - fish flower repurchase - natural stocking - fishing sales”. Among them, the upstream service company raised more than 100,000 fishermen, and annual operating working capital requirements exceeded 100 million yuan (the production cost of the company's aquatic products in 14 years was 363 million yuan, mainly the cost of fry), and the vast majority of fishermen have problems with tight capital and limited scale expansion. The company is based on extensive fisherman resources and may enter the supply chain finance field in the future. At the same time, the company has a large capacity for temporary storage of freshwater fish. Trade differences can be obtained by purchasing fish from retail farmers, temporarily raising them, and then selling them during peak consumption periods. (2) Fishing and light all in one. The company's water surface is widely distributed in Xinjiang, Hunan, Anhui, and Jiangsu. The development of distributed photovoltaic power generation according to local conditions is a viable solution to increase revenue for the company and local counties and cities. The company uses battery panels on the surface of the water and aquaculture under the water to improve land utilization and achieve parallel farming and power generation. (3) Others: travel and leisure, environmental protection, etc. The company's farming area is usually surrounded by mountains and water, and has beautiful scenery. Currently, fishing and other activities have been developed sporadically, and the overall planning of lake tourism and leisure business can be of greater value in the future; the “let people take natural care” model has created a new model using biological chains to improve the water environment. Currently, the company has carried out research with some research institutes on the effects of natural aquaculture to improve the water environment, and there is no shortage of possibilities for commercialization and promotion. Give it an “gain” rating. The company is expected to achieve operating income of 6.93/7.16/740 million yuan in 15-17, up 2.5%/3.3%/3.4% year on year; achieve net profit of 1158.9/2282.7/33.86 million yuan, up 623.6%/97.0%/44.9% year on year; and achieve EPS of 0.02/0.05/0.07 yuan (after non-public offering and dilution). The company's 1.8 million mu water surface has a circulation value of about 16 billion yuan (transfer price is about 9,000 yuan/mu), and the current market value is only 8 billion yuan. Based on the company's broad prospects of developing diversified derivative industries around surface resources in the future, it was given an “increase in wealth” rating.

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