Main points of investment:
With traditional Chinese medicine injection as the core variety, the advantage of cardio-cerebrovascular brand is obvious. The company is a high-end traditional Chinese medicine preparation as the core, multi-dosage forms, multi-variety of traditional Chinese medicine research and development, production and sales enterprises, the leading product is the national well-known trademark "Zhenbao" series. The company's Xuesaitong injection, Shuxuening injection and bone peptide for injection have been awarded "National Torch Plan key Project Certificate" and have five exclusive production varieties.
Cardio-cerebrovascular products are the company's main products. In 2014, the revenue scale of the company's cardio-cerebrovascular products was 1.252 billion yuan, accounting for 79%. The gross profit is 832 million yuan, and the gross profit is 83%. The core product Xuesaitong for injection accounts for 60% of the revenue of cardio-cerebrovascular products.
Osteopeptide for injection is expected to become a new growth point. Since the injection osteopeptide product was put into production in 2006, it has increased significantly. Its scale has increased rapidly from 50.31 million yuan in 2011 to 184.97 million yuan in 2014, with a compound growth rate of 54%. The market scale of this product is expected to further increase in the future.
Analysis of the company's core competitive advantage: the company has a full range of products, and the cardio-cerebrovascular products are highly competitive in the market; the company adopts different marketing models for different products, and the marketing network covers all regions except Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and Tibet in 34 provincial administrative regions across the country. The company pays attention to research and development. at present, the company has 92 patents, including 47 invention patents, and its R & D advantages are expected to be transformed into product advantages.
Fund-raising projects: this fund-raising investment projects can be divided into four categories: the first category is the production expansion and technical transformation investment of the company's original leading products, with a total investment of 490.9278 million yuan; the second category is the industrialization project of the company's original small-batch production products, the total investment amount is 193.6425 million yuan; the third category is the company's support projects for future industrial development and capacity expansion of major products, with an investment amount of 362.9469 million yuan. Others are used to repay bank loans and replenish liquidity.
The risk reveals that the main raw materials of the company are traditional Chinese medicine, and the price fluctuation of traditional Chinese medicine has a great impact on the performance; the competition of similar products will affect the profitability of the company; the decline in the bidding price of drugs affected by policies may reduce the profitability of the company; there are potential drug safety risks for traditional Chinese medicine injections.
We estimate that the fully diluted EPS of the company in 2015, 2016 and 2017 will be 1.23,1.36 and 1.53 yuan, combined with the growth of the company and with reference to the valuation level of proprietary Chinese medicine enterprises, we will give the company 20-30 times PE in 2015, and the reasonable price of the company is 24.6 yuan-36.9yuan.