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济民制药(603222):区域性高端大输液领先企业 药包材全产业链优势初显

申萬宏源研究 ·  Feb 5, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: Regional leading high-end major infusion companies. The company focuses on the R&D, production and sales of large infusions and injection and puncture devices. Big infusion revenue accounts for more than 80% of the company's main business. Its main high-end product - non-PVC soft bag large infusion, has an annual production capacity of 140 million bags, which is at the forefront of the industry. The company's core coverage area is Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Guangdong, and is actively expanding to Hubei, Shanghai, Chongqing and other provinces. Li Xianyu's family is the actual controller of the company. The Double Pigeon Group (98.08% holding), which Li Xianyu absolutely controls, held 36.20% of the shares after the company was issued, and his wife, Zhang Xueqin, held 12.21% after issuance. The total number of shares held by Li Xianyu and her family exceeds 50%. The gross margin of operating products is high, and the extension of the industrial chain has created a cost-leading strategy. The gross margin of operating products in 2013 was as high as 49.79%, far exceeding the industry average. Among them, the gross margin of the large infusion business was 54.24%, which is an important part of the company's main gross profit. Unlike the current situation where raw materials from peer companies need to be imported, the company is actively expanding into the upstream industry chain. While guaranteeing the supply of raw materials, it can also balance quality advantages and cost control, and gross margin is also expected to continue to increase. Analysis of the company's core competitive advantages: the entire pharmaceutical packaging industry chain helps lead the cost and will stand out in industry integration; production scale advantages are conducive to tender review and can reduce the allocation of fixed costs; the company focuses on R&D and has achieved achievements in various areas such as pharmaceutical packaging research and development, pharmaceutical R&D, production line technological transformation and process optimization, and its R&D advantages are expected to be transformed into product advantages; regional market advantages are obvious, and overseas business provides new profit growth points. Fund-raising projects: The funds raised this time plan to use 239 million dollars to invest in production capacity expansion projects for non-PVC soft bag infusions, 29 million dollars for non-PVC film modified polypropylene examples, 0.3 billion for drug research and development center projects, and the remaining 0.8 million yuan to supplement working capital. Risk disclosure: The regional distribution of operating income is concentrated. If regional tenders in the core market do not meet expectations, it will have a great impact on performance; if the distribution of revenue products is relatively concentrated, policy changes in related industries may cause large fluctuations; and the decline in drug tender prices may reduce the company's profitability. We expect the company's fully diluted EPS in 2014, 2015, and 2016 to be 0.61 yuan, 0.76 yuan, and 0.94 yuan. Combined with the company's growth, 22-27 times PE in 2014, the company's reasonable price is 25.3 yuan to 31.1 yuan; if the issuance price is low, we recommend focusing on it. Special Reminder: The IPO pricing predicted in this report is not the price performance on the first day of listing, but rather a reasonable price range when the current market environment remains largely unchanged.

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