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外高桥(600648):业绩符合预期、业务多元化模式初现

申銀萬國 ·  Mar 6, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Investment highlights: The company announced a performance report. It is estimated that in 2014, the company will achieve revenue of 7.761 billion yuan, an increase of 9.92% over the previous year; net profit of 698 million yuan, an increase of 28.18% over the previous year; and basic earnings per share of 0.64 yuan, an increase of 18.52% over the previous year. Net profit increased steadily year over year, and performance was in line with expectations. The company's net profit increased 28.18% year on year, mainly due to the increase in gross profit of the main business due to business growth in real estate leasing, import and export trade, etc., and the increase in investment income due to the transfer of financial assets available for sale; the company's equity attributable to shareholders was 8.889 billion yuan, an increase of 64.72% over the previous year, mainly due to the company's non-public offering of shares raised 2.7 billion yuan. The company currently has an average financing cost of about 5.63%, but the company still has some room for expansion in overseas RMB direct financing, and the company's financing costs are expected to be further reduced in the future. The free trade zone policy dividends continue to be released, and the company will become the most important platform for the opening up of the free trade zone to the outside world. General Secretary **** emphasized during the deliberations of the Shanghai delegation to the Third Session of the 12th National People's Congress that speeding up implementation of the free trade zone strategy is an important part of China's new round of opening up to the outside world, and that more attention should be paid to international high-standard trade and investment rules, so that institutional innovation can become a powerful driving force for development. The various policies of the free trade zone have a strong effect on the company's business in the three major sectors of industrial parks, commercial housing, and logistics trade, and the company's basic orientation is good. Meanwhile, the company currently has an industrial land area of 3.7 million square meters in the free trade zone, accounting for 61% of the currently planned land area. The future development of free trade zones will inevitably require that regional land use methods be more intensive, and that the nature of land use can support finance, commerce and service industries. With the support of free trade zones and land policies, the company's secondary land development already owes only the best. The business diversification model is beginning to emerge, and various new businesses are gradually being implemented. 1) The company, Shanghai Waigaoqiao (Group) Co., Ltd. and Shanghai Waigaoqiao International Trade Operation Center Co., Ltd. (a wholly-owned subsidiary of a listed company) jointly invested in the establishment of Shanghai Waigaoqiao Automobile Exchange Market Co., Ltd., with a cumulative shareholding ratio of 30%, and will promote the development of parallel imported automobile projects in the future. In the future, the company hopes that the parallel automobile import pilot in the free trade zone will achieve 5-8% of the country's import volume; 2) the company plans to cooperate with Shanghai Free Trade Zone International Cultural Investment and Development Co., Ltd. to set up a Sunland International Art Exhibition and Exchange Hall on the first and second floors of the Sunland International Building podium to build a world-class art display and trading platform; 3) The company's DIG Import Direct Sales Center is also in progress, and plans to set up 50 branch centers in the next 3-5 years, which are currently developing rapidly. Investment suggestions: After the company has been added, its performance is stable. In the future, as policy dividends such as free trade zones, global science and technology innovation centers, and Shanghai state-owned assets reform continue to be released, the company will clearly benefit. At the same time, the company has made breakthroughs in various businesses such as DIG, Sunland, and flat car imports, which has become a new profit growth point for the company in the future. The company currently has RNAV48.2 yuan per share. We maintain the company's 2014-16EPS (revised due to increased issuance and performance forecast) of 0.64, 0.82, and 1.08. The current stock price corresponding to PE is 51% off, 40X, and 30X, compared to NAVRX The price is 33%, maintaining the buying rating.

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