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SPT ENERGY GROUP(1251.HK):业绩潜能大 明年会更好

SPT ENERGY GROUP (1251.HK): Performance potential is greater and next year will be better

申萬宏源研究 ·  Jul 23, 2019 00:00  · Researches

By the end of June '19, compared to 1.8 billion yuan in mid-March '19, Huayou Energy recorded an order of 2.1 billion yuan on hand. In the area where Huayou operates in Xinjiang, drilling prices increased by at least 10% year-on-year in the first half of '19. Due to increased workload and price recovery, we expect Huayou Energy to achieve a net profit of about 50 million yuan in the first half of '19. We maintain our 19-year paved earnings forecast of RMB 0.09 per share. Driven by the accelerated upward trend in the Sichuan shale gas oil service market, we raised the company's 20-year earnings per share forecast from RMB 0.15 to RMB 0.17, and our earnings per share forecast for 2021 from RMB 0.21 to RMB 0.23. We maintain our current target price of HK$1.02, which corresponds to a price-earnings ratio of 10.0 times in '19. There is 32% room for the current price to rise from the target price, maintaining the buying rating.

There are plenty of in-hand orders. By the end of June '19, compared to 1.8 billion yuan in mid-March '19, Huayou Energy recorded an on-hand order of 2.1 billion yuan. Domestic on-hand orders steadily increased 11.1% to 1.2 billion yuan; overseas on-hand orders increased 15.5% to 870 million yuan. In the area where Huayou operates in Xinjiang, drilling prices increased by at least 10% year-on-year in the first half of '19. Due to increased workload and price recovery, we expect Huayou Energy to record revenue of 7-750 million yuan in the first half of '19 compared to 535 million yuan in mid-'18. Net profit was achieved of about 50 million yuan (a year-on-year increase of 154%).

Shale gas opportunities in Sichuan. The year the “13th Five-Year Plan” shale gas plan comes to an end is getting closer and closer. Catalyzed by the theme of energy security, the sentiment of the shale gas oil service market in Sichuan is rising at an accelerated pace. Based on the production plan, we expect CNPC's main production area to complete 110 drilling units in 19 and increase to 212 units in 20. The investment amount will further increase from 10.6 billion yuan in 19 to 13.6 billion yuan in 20. Huayou currently has 6 drilling rigs on the Sichuan Changning market, which will further increase to 8-10 in 2020. Under a neutral scenario, we expect Huayou's revenue in the Sichuan market to reach a record high of 1.2 billion yuan in 2020, equivalent to 83% of total revenue in 2018. Strong market demand has laid the foundation for further price increases. We expect the company's operating profit margin to increase from 9% in '18 to 17% in '20. Based on this, we raised the company's earnings per share forecast for 20 years from RMB 0.15 to RMB 0.17, and our earnings per share forecast for 21 years from RMB 0.21 to RMB 0.23.

Focus on the future. The company announced that it has reached a strategic cooperation with leading artificial intelligence company Fourth Paradigm to jointly enter the upstream oilfield informatization service market. We are optimistic about the company's strategic cooperation prospects. On the one hand, domestic oil field information services are a blue ocean market, and the potential market space is huge; on the other hand, market sentiment is less affected by the capital expenditure of upstream oil companies, and long-term value creation can be expected.

Maintain the buy rating. We maintain our 19-year paved earnings forecast of RMB 0.09 per share. Driven by the accelerated upward trend in the Sichuan shale gas oil service market, we raised the company's 20-year earnings per share forecast from RMB 0.15 to RMB 0.17, and our earnings per share forecast for 2021 from RMB 0.21 to RMB 0.23. We maintain our current target price of HK$1.02, which corresponds to a price-earnings ratio of 10.0 times in '19. There is 32% room for the current price to rise from the target price, maintaining the buying rating.

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