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广东明珠(600382)点评:菊酯业务稳健增长 未来存资产整合预期

廣發證券 ·  Mar 21, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Core point of view: The 15-year performance forecast, which is basically flat after deduction, shows that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2015 is expected to drop 75% to 85% compared to the same period last year, and the average annual performance is estimated to be around 169 million yuan. The main reason for the decline in performance is that in the same period last year, the company received 1.08 billion yuan in compensation for land concessions from Guangzhou Valve Company, which greatly increased the company's net profit level, and the company's investment income and trust loan income, etc., were basically the same as in the past. The first-level development business provides stable future business stability. In November 2014, the company cooperated with the government to carry out first-level land development on about 13,000 mu of land in the southern new town of Xingning City. The contract largely protects the interests of the development company, sets land concession plans and minimum prices for the next few years, and grants the project company a number of special compensation. Due to infrastructure support and other reasons, the agreement between the company and the Xingning municipal government will begin land concession work in 2016. It is estimated that it can contribute about 2.5 billion yuan in revenue and more than 300 million dollars in net profit every year. Combined with the company's current investment income and entrusted loan income, the company's stable performance scale will be around 500 million yuan starting in 2016. In the next few years, the company will resolve the current situation where there was no main business in the past, and the certainty of performance will be greatly improved. The company's performance in 16-17 is expected to be 1.33 and 1.57 yuan respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating. Currently, the company is still successfully advancing its non-public offering plan. The participation price for the majority shareholders is 14.97 yuan/share. Compared with the current price, there is more than 40% price space, and the current investment point has a high margin of safety. Based on the current market value calculation, the PB level is only 1.45 times; if additional issuance is completed at the current price, the company's PB level is 1.25 times, and most of the assets are cash and marketable financial assets. The overall balance and liability structure is conducive to further developing new business fields in the future. Risk suggests that after the majority shareholders complete the increase in holdings, there is uncertainty about further business expansion

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