This report is read as follows:
At present, the company's profits and market capitalization are small, and it is making great efforts to expand the intelligent logistics warehousing system and intelligent three-dimensional parking market. We judge that with the landing of orders, the marginal improvement of company performance and market value is more flexible.
Main points of investment:
Conclusion: the company is in a leading position in the automotive intelligent logistics equipment market, but due to the slowdown of fixed asset investment in the automotive industry, the business income of intelligent logistics delivery system has declined since 2013. We judge that after a 3-year adjustment period, the business is expected to remain stable in the future. In addition, with the advantages accumulated in automotive intelligent logistics equipment, the company is making great efforts to develop intelligent logistics warehousing system and three-dimensional parking market.
The intelligent logistics warehousing system has successfully entered the pharmaceutical, food and e-commerce markets, and it is expected that the business will benefit from the upgrading of manufacturing equipment and the development of e-commerce, and will usher in a period of rapid growth; the potential demand for three-dimensional parking garages across the country will exceed 100 billion. With the improvement of the development environment of the industry, it will break out in the future. It is estimated that the EPS from 2016 to 2018 will be 0.39,0.42 and 0.57 yuan, considering that the company is in the early stage of market development of intelligent logistics systems in the non-automotive industry and has greater landing potential of orders, a certain valuation premium is given and a target price of 35 yuan is given, corresponding to the first coverage and "prudent increase of holdings" rating.
Intelligent logistics warehousing system is the focus of the company's medium-term development, benefiting from equipment upgrading and e-commerce development. The company's original revenue intelligent logistics delivery system was affected by the fixed release of the automotive industry, and its revenue decreased by 35% in mid-2016. At present, the main downstream customers of the company's intelligent logistics warehousing system are concentrated in medicine, food, e-commerce and other industries, we judge that this business will benefit from the upgrading of manufacturing equipment and the rapid growth of e-commerce demand for warehousing logistics.
The potential demand of the three-dimensional parking garage market is more than 100 billion, waiting for the development and improvement of the industry to enter the harvest period. At present, mechanical three-dimensional berths in China only account for 1.7% of the total berths, which is far from 15% of the developed countries. Assuming that the proportion of mechanical three-dimensional berths in our country is increased to 10%, it is estimated that the total demand is more than 300 billion. In August 2015, various government departments have issued the "guidance on strengthening the Construction of Urban parking facilities" to improve the development environment of the industry. We judge that with the gradual improvement of the industry, the company's three-dimensional parking garage business will enter the harvest period.
Risk hint: the business of intelligent logistics transportation system has declined more than expected; the expansion of logistics warehousing system is lower than expected.
