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拓日新能(002218):光伏全产业链布局 电站EPC助推业绩增长

長城國瑞證券 ·  Nov 2, 2016 00:00  · Researches

The most prominent feature and advantage of Tuori Xinneng compared to other domestic solar cell companies is that the company has always adhered to steady management and full-industry chain layout strategies, has strong cost control capabilities and market responsiveness, and can better adapt to market changes during the upward cycle, expand production capacity in a timely manner, and achieve revenue and profit growth; in the declining cycle, it has also shown superior risk resilience. Back-end photovoltaic power plant construction and EPC business can not only continue to bring in revenue and profit, but also provide a channel of elimination for its photovoltaic modules, fully reflecting the advantages of steady development and comprehensive layout. The company has continued to grow and develop over a long period of time. Under conditions of promising market prospects and relatively stable return on investment, Tuori Xinneng closely followed market trends and continued to promote the development and construction of photovoltaic power plant projects. It now owns 220 MW of large-scale ground-based photovoltaic power plants. At the same time, the company has mastered advanced station construction technology and accumulated rich experience in photovoltaic power plant design, installation and construction technology. The power generation efficiency of the self-built and grid-connected photovoltaic power plant projects has maintained a high level, which not only brings rich electricity revenue and operating profits to the company, but also lays a good technical foundation for the company to carry out photovoltaic power plant EPC business and operation and maintenance business. As the company gradually accumulates experience in power plant construction, breaks through component production capacity bottlenecks, and changes in the market environment, Tuori Xinneng is focusing on developing EPC business and sees this as one of the main future development directions. Amidst these cyclical fluctuations in the photovoltaic industry, the company seized the opportunity to go against the current trend and quickly seize the EPC market with its excellent cost control capabilities, sufficient module production capacity, and advanced technical advantages, and formed a new growth point in performance. Investment advice: In several major cycles in the photovoltaic industry, Tuori Xinneng has always been able to maintain steady operations, and has shown excellent risk resilience during contraction cycles. We believe that the company's future performance growth rate is likely to exceed the industry average. It is estimated that Tuori Xinneng's EPS for 2016-2017 will be 0.242 yuan and 0.323 yuan respectively, and the corresponding P/E will be 41.59 times and 31.17 times, respectively. Judging from the current median P/E of 34.25 times in the photovoltaic equipment industry, the company's valuation is now quite balanced. Further considering that at the current point in time, the company's performance has a high margin of safety downward and strong explosive power upward, we have given it a “buy” investment rating for the first time. Risk warning: The layout of the entire industry chain, the construction of own power plants, and the EPC business of photovoltaic power plants, etc. that take up a lot of capital, bring risks of high capital operation and financing pressure; power plant construction and photovoltaic power plant EPC business development fall short of expectations; and sales of products such as modules, photovoltaic solar glass and other products fall short of expectations.

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