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冠昊生物(300238):惠迪森、人工角膜、苯烯莫德带来新的成长期

Guanhao Biology (300238): Huidison, artificial cornea and phenylethyl bring a new period of growth

天風證券 ·  Apr 28, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Domestic biomaterials leading company, old business hard brain (spinal) membrane patch new and old type replacement.

On the platform of animal-derived biomaterials, the company has developed biotype and B-type dura mater patch, thoracic surgery repair membrane, aseptic biological wound protection membrane, breast patch, acellular corneal graft and so on. Among them, the biological dura mater patch surpasses Johnson & Johnson and Bei Lang, and has the first market share in China. The 16-year revenue, net profit and net profit after deduction were 313 million, 65 million and 49 million, up 38.30%, 3.16% and-8.15%.

Excluding the revenue and net profit of 69.8 million and 21.05 million of Zhuhai Xiangle since September, the revenue and net profit of the old main business increased by 7.44% and-30.06%. The reasons for the obvious decline in net profit are: 1) the acquisition of Zhuhai Xiangle and replenishing the funds needed for daily operation led to a 9.9344 million increase in financial expenses; 2) the total loss of R & D subsidiaries and associated enterprises was 10.9027 million. 3) the sales cost increased by 19.738 million due to the promotion of breast patches, ICP agents and cell business. In the past 16 years, the main products of the company's old business, dura mater patch biotype, type B and thoracic surgery repair film, have revenue of 173 million, 9 million and 14 million respectively, accounting for 71.24%, 3.71% and 5.59% of the revenue after deducting Xiangle, with an increase of-3.47%, 56.75% and 64.97% over the same sales system. at present, the company has gradually replaced the biological type with type B with a 25% higher bidding price in the same sales system. It is expected that the dura mater patch will maintain a growth rate of about 10% in the future.

Acquire Zhuhai Xiangle to create a high-end ophthalmology product line of intraocular lens and artificial cornea.

In the past 15 years, there have been 1.67 million cataract operations in China, and it is estimated that the number of cataract blind people in China will reach more than 5 million in 2020; the number of CSR in developed countries has exceeded 9000 cases / million people / year, and China has reached 1351 cases / million people / year in 15 years, which has a large gap with developed countries and has a huge market capacity. Zhuhai Xiangle's exclusive agent in China, the American Arui IOL, has been acting to sell Chase's Lucia series IOLs in 16 years. According to cataract surgery estimates, the company's market share is about 16%; 16-year revenue and net profit are 184 million and 52 million respectively, and the company's last 17-year bet is 67.6 million.

At present, among the more than 4 million corneal blind patients in China, it is conservatively estimated that more than 100000 patients need lamellar keratoplasty, and the total number of keratoplasty is about 5000 per year, so there is a huge market for corneal prosthesis. Youdeqing, with 49.33% of the company's shares, was approved in 16 years as the only artificial cornea with the treatment standard of getting rid of blindness and fuming, and is currently in the stage of clinical promotion. Nearly 39 cases of corneal transplants have been carried out in more than 10 provinces such as Guangdong and Fujian in the past 16 years, with a terminal price of 20 million tablets. Youdeqing will share Zhuhai Xiangle's mature ophthalmology sales channel and system to help cornea expand quickly. It is expected that the company will expand to the direction of ophthalmic medicine in the future.

The proposed acquisition of Whitdison, profit support artificial keratoplasty and benzenmode academic promotion non-public offering acquisition of Hudison, whose main product is raoxefin sodium, has a 16-year revenue of 490 million and a net profit of 128 million; IMS expects the market terminal size in 16 years to be 2.422 billion, an increase of 35.30% over the same period last year.

The 17-year performance commitment is not less than 160 million. Beijing Wenfeng, which has a 5% stake in the company and is controlled by major shareholders, has a class 1 new drug for the treatment of psoriasis, which is about to be approved, and its curative effect is better than that of the positive control capotriol, with a low recurrence rate and a long remission period after cure. China currently has 6.5 million patients with psoriasis, with a consultation rate of less than 20%, the efficacy and dosage form advantages of phenomod, as well as the strong sales ability of superimposed Huidison, will share a huge market share.

Valuation rating

As a leading biomaterial company in China, it has a broad market space to gradually expand drugs, artificial cornea and phenylethyl. It is expected that Hudison will begin to merge the table in 18 years, regardless of artificial cornea and phenylethyl. It is predicted that the EPS in 17-19 years will be 0.46,1.03,1.28 yuan, corresponding to PE 57 times, 25 times, 20 times. 18-year 30PE will be given, corresponding to the target price of 30 yuan.

Risk hint: the release of artificial keratoplasty is lower than expected, and the approval rate of benzoethod is lower than expected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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