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奥园健康(03662.HK):物业管理、商业运营双线并进 业绩快速增长

國信證券(香港) ·  Jul 8, 2019 00:00  · Researches

The company takes property management and commercial operations as the core of its development. Driven by the strong sales growth of its parent company, China Aoyuan, in recent years, the growth of property management service revenue in the next three years is highly predictable and certain. We expect the company's management area to reach 15 million square meters by the end of 2019, an increase of about 43.8% over 2018; commercial operating revenue accounted for nearly 30% of total revenue in 2018, and the share of future revenue will continue to rise, becoming an important stabilizer for the company to maintain profit growth. At the same time, the company actively lays out the big health industry and enhances customer satisfaction through various services such as community traditional Chinese medicine and medical beauty. We expect the company's EPS for 2019 and 2020 to be $0.2 and $0.3 respectively, giving the company 25 times the PE in 2019, corresponding to the target price of HK$5.68, covering the “buy” investment rating for the first time. Revenue and net profit increased rapidly. In 2018, the company achieved revenue of about 618 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.9%. The compound annual revenue growth rate from 2015 to 2018 was 51.1%; core net profit (excluding one-time listing expenses) was about 93.8 million yuan, up 25.7% year on year, and the compound annual revenue growth rate from 2015 to 2018 was 51.6%. Over the past four years, the company's overall business revenue and net profit have maintained a rapid growth trend. As of the end of 2018, the company's revenue mainly came from the two major sectors of property management services and commercial operation services, which accounted for 73.2% and 26.8% of revenue respectively. Property management service revenue continued to grow at a high rate as the scale of the company's management area grew steadily. The company's property management service division achieved revenue of 453 million yuan in 2018, an increase of 42.6% over the previous year, accounting for about 73.2% of total revenue. The compound annual revenue growth rate of the property management service division from 2015 to 2018 was 44.8%. Among them, revenue from property management services was 306 million yuan, up about 30.2% year on year; revenue from sales support services was 99 million yuan, up 125.3% year on year; and revenue from community value-added services was 48 million yuan, up 24.1% year on year. The increase in revenue from property management services in 2018 was mainly due to the increase in the construction area under management from 8.6 million square meters in 2017 to 10.4 million square meters, an increase of 20.1% over the previous year. The increase in revenue from sales support services is mainly due to the increase in the number of property projects serviced by the company from 54 in 2017 to 93 at the end of 2018. The company's business is deeply located in South China, and the share of property under management in South China is about 66.7%. In the future, the company's property management services will continue to benefit from the development of the Greater Bay Area in Guangdong, Hong Kong, and the Olympic Greater Bay Area. Strong sales of parent company China Aoyuan brought high predictability to the company's future growth in the construction area under management. As of the end of 2018, 94.7% of the company's management area of 10.43 million square meters came from parent company China Aoyuan and its affiliates. The increase in the company's performance is closely related to the development of parent company China Aoyuan. In 2018, China Aoyuan added 64 new projects, achieving a contract sales area of about 8.863 million square meters, a significant increase of 98% over the previous year. In the first 6 months of 2019, China Aoyuan's contract sales were 53.63 billion yuan, up 33% year on year. As of the end of 2018, the total construction area of China Aoyuan Land Reserve was about 34.1 million square meters, which is sufficient to meet the company's development needs over the next three years or so, and the certainty of performance growth is strong. We expect the company's management area to reach about 15 million square meters by the end of 2019, a year-on-year increase of about 43.8% over 2018. China Aoyuan's strong sales and abundant land reserves have brought high predictability to the company's future growth in the construction area under management. Commercial operation services have a certain competitive advantage. In terms of commercial operations, the company currently mainly provides market positioning and merchant recruitment services before the opening of the mall, as well as commercial operation and management services after the opening of the shopping mall. In 2018, the company's commercial operating revenue was 166 million yuan, up 40.3% year on year, accounting for about 26.8% of total revenue. The compound annual growth rate of the property management service segment revenue from 2015 to 2018 was 76.3%. As of the end of 2018, the company's 7 cities provided commercial operation services to 9 shopping malls in operation, with a construction area of about 424,000 square meters under management; contracted to provide commercial operation and management services to 22 shopping malls, with a contract construction area of about 1.1 million square meters. The average contract period for commercial operation and management services is usually as long as 10 to 20 years. It has the characteristics of long term, stable revenue, and high gross margin. It is expected that in the future, with the steady growth of the company's shopping mall operating projects, the share of commercial operating revenue will continue to increase, becoming an important stabilizer for the company to maintain profit growth. Lay out the big health industry and promote diversified business development The company not only takes property management and commercial operation as the core of development, but also lays out the big health industry. Currently, the expansion direction in the big health sector is mainly in the two areas of community traditional Chinese medicine and medical beauty. (1) At present, the company has set up and operated two traditional Chinese medicine centers in managed properties to create “community+traditional Chinese medicine” services to provide residents with more convenient community medical services. (2) The company vigorously promotes the development of medical aesthetic services. In August 2018, the company established a strategic cooperative relationship with Korean medical aesthetic service provider PPEUM to provide customers with microplastic, dermatology, plastic surgery and dental services. At the same time, the company's online platform connects to the “Dr. Chunyu” and “Health 160” online medical consultation service platforms to provide “online+offline” health services to enhance customer satisfaction through diversified value-added services. The investment advice company focuses on both property management and commercial operations. Driven by strong sales growth in recent years by parent company China Aoyuan, the company, has strong predictability and certainty about the growth of property management service revenue over the next three years. We expect the company's management area to reach 15 million square meters by the end of 2019, an increase of about 43.8% over 2018; commercial operating revenue accounted for nearly 30% of total revenue in 2018, and the share of future revenue will continue to rise, becoming an important stabilizer for the company to maintain profit growth. At the same time, the company actively lays out the big health industry and enhances customer satisfaction through various services such as community traditional Chinese medicine and medical beauty. We expect the company's EPS for 2019 and 2020 to be $0.2 and $0.3 respectively, giving the company 25 times the PE in 2019, corresponding to the target price of HK$5.68, covering the “buy” investment rating for the first time. Risks suggest that adjustments in the real estate industry have exceeded expectations, leading to a slowdown in company performance growth; personnel costs have risen sharply; and business progress in commercial operations and the health industry has fallen short of expectations.

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