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科泰电源(300153)调研纪要

華創證券 ·  Dec 17, 2016 00:00  · Researches

1. Introduction to the company's main business business segments include intelligent environmentally friendly power supply equipment (including backup power modules, data centers, etc.), energy saving and environmental protection business (Zhiguang Energy has great support for the company's performance), new energy vehicle business, and new energy vehicle business. New energy vehicles: Beginning in 2014, Jetstar achieved profit and loss balance in 2014, and achieved 180 million yuan in revenue and 20 million in profit in 2015. In 2015, Jietai led the scale of operations in Shanghai and other places in China. 2. Communication session 1. The company's views on policy adjustments and whether Jetstar is preparing goods to deal with the explosion of orders is helpful in regulating the industry. There was some chaos in passenger transport in 2015, and regulations ruled out the fittest for companies that did not have access to the industry. We are currently also studying policies and formulating strategies, and currently we are also signing some pre-sales contracts. Last year, we explored more new energy vehicles, but this year is clearly different; customers will take the initiative to raise demand. The company is currently preparing in the following areas: Models: Last year, 5-6 car companies announced 7-8 models, and are awaiting approval. Various logistics vehicles such as FAW, Dongfeng, Southeast, Xiamen Jinlong, Suzhou Jinlong, and Xiamen Gold Travel are being announced. The next batch will be released one after another, and the vehicle performance can meet the requirements of the new standards. Production capacity: Jiexin's new plant was put into operation in July this year, and production capacity has quadrupled. A long-term battery cell framework agreement was also signed last year, and preparations have been made. Market: Customers have more clear needs, including SF Express, EMS, etc. We have locations all over the world. The next step is to try to make up for the impact of policy adjustments in the first half of the year on performance. 2. Pack price changes In 2015, the pack price was 2.6-2.7 yuan/Wh, and the gross margin/net margin was 30%/10%, respectively. The selling price will definitely drop this year, but the net interest rate will remain, and the scale will expand further. The pricing aspect will be adjusted based on subsidies and the economy of operation. First, there is room for prices from upstream battery suppliers to drop further this year. Second, the reduction in subsidies for logistics vehicles is not obvious compared to buses, so there is still an advantage in promoting logistics vehicles. 3. The main battery partner was mainly BAK in 2015, and BAK is still the main one this year (about 18 million units, about 3,500 units at 40 kWh/vehicle), but it will reach out to domestic suppliers more widely to calm the risk of price fluctuations. The direction is still ternary 18650 batteries. Our contacts this year include Tianpeng, LG, Panasonic, etc. The specific quantity should be matched to the needs of downstream car companies. 4. The main customers of last year (1982 sets) and this year were Suzhou Jinlong and Xiamen Jinlong. Among them, Suzhou Jinlong is a logistics vehicle, while Xiamen Jinlong has a relatively large volume, mainly buses. However, due to the suspension of the use of three yuan on buses, orders from Xiamen Jinlong may have some impact, but since we have many customers this year, including Dongfeng, FAW, etc., all focusing on logistics vehicles, the impact will not be significant. This year, firstly, we will expand the market size through the supply network of vehicle customers, and secondly, we will also increase sales through our own channels and networks of logistics companies (SF Express, Yuantong, etc.), which means we have our own operating platform. SF Express will launch 3,000 vehicles this year, and EMS will be 2,500, which will replace traditional fuel vehicles and electric tricycles. 5. Main application scenarios of the product The load capacity and driving range of electric microplanes have advantages over electric tricycles and can meet the needs of multiple deliveries. Our model is able to attract customers at a lower cost (leasing). Using electric vehicles can reduce usage costs by 20-30% compared to using traditional fuel vehicles in the logistics industry (including insurance, fuel costs, maintenance, etc.). 6. Subsidy application process State subsidy: Car manufacturers report to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology website every quarter with certificates of conformity and sales, then directly disbursed by the government, and not taxed. Land subsidy: If the subsidy is given to car companies, then the land subsidy is included in the vehicle sales price (issuing a VAT invoice); what we talked about with the car manufacturer is the price that includes land subsidy. However, car companies must enter local directories (or pass local inspection standards), and customers must meet local quota management (for example, passenger and freight permits, approved by the Transportation Commission). The sales agreement is handed over by the car company to the Economic and Credit Commission to apply for subsidies (Shanghai is for car companies, which are approved once in a quarter; Guangzhou is applied by the operating company, that is, the customer). The other is to subsidize operating companies (such as logistics companies), so the price does not include land subsidies. 7. Regarding the progress of the acquisition of Jetstar and whether the pack company also needs to pass the new national standard, it was suspended for 3 months, mainly due to valuation reasons. Jetstar's expectations are relatively high. We do it in the form of a stock exchange, and we evaluate it by discounting cash flow, so there are some differences. However, we will still receive it later. If performance improves in the second half of this year, then there will be no problem using valuation as an evaluation. At the end of the year, we will reconsider this matter. Furthermore, we are not limited to this project; we want to build a platform, and if there are good companies, we are also willing to cooperate openly. The new national standard is a mandatory standard for batteries, and some policies with a high level of awareness have already gone into it. For pack companies, it is also necessary to pass this standard, but currently, judging from actual implementation, there should be a transition period of half a year to one year (for pack companies). 8. The maximum subsidy limit is a new problem for Shanghai, but it is not a problem for other regions. If it is strictly enforced, it is very difficult to do because it is difficult to reduce production costs so much. The government's policy formulation is actually a consultation system, and related enterprises have channels to reflect their voices. We still have confidence in the land supplement. Local promotion departments don't want to see promotion falling short of expectations; they just consider the pressure on local finances. 9. Jietai's target promotion cities and current promotion progress are planned to go north to account for 60% this year. There was not much growth in the first half of the year due to policy reasons, and the growth rate in the second half of the year will be very rapid. In terms of special vehicle models (excluding logistics vehicles), we will continue to develop them this year. 10. Whether the rental operating price will be adjusted to 79 yuan/day in 2015. Prices in different regions are definitely not the same. They will be considered comprehensively based on customer acceptance, local subsidies, local models, etc., and our leasing service is more competitive in terms of maintenance and repair. For non-operating leasing operations (those that do not require us to resolve quotas, repairs, and maintenance), we can provide financial leasing services and sell them to customers for 0.5-10,000 yuan. Gross profit from leasing operations is 8,000 yuan/vehicle, net profit is 4000-5000 yuan/vehicle. In the short term, we will depend on the performance of operations, and in the long term, we still need to rely on the value of the platform. We hope that in the future, we can achieve the expansion and extension of the industrial chain through the platform, such as logistics outsourcing. In the past two years, four links and one, the speed of development is actually faster than Debon and SF Express. Through the form of franchise stores, expansion is faster. If we can provide logistics outsourcing services, then our business will expand even faster. We are also working on differentiated models to meet differentiated markets that are different from traditional automakers, such as the layout of special purpose vehicles, including electric special vehicles. The value of bicycles is high (2 million per vehicle), and the promotion scale of 1,000 bicycles is likely to reach 1,000 vehicles this year. Will the majority shareholders' penalties in November and February have an impact on future business? It occurred in April-May 2015 (related to the stock disaster). This is an operational error. Now that we have paid our fines, there will be no impact on future mergers and acquisitions, financing, etc., and our balance ratio is only 30%, mostly in the short term, so there is still plenty of room for the future. Furthermore, we still have a balance of more than 200 million dollars in overraised capital, so there is definitely no problem meeting the half-year demand. In the long run, it will be based on the capital market environment, such as improving the layout and performance this year, and financing again next year. 12. The situation of extracorporeal charging pile companies This company originally worked in the UPS and communications industry, and had the technical ability to make power modules. Last year, they dedicated themselves to the design and manufacture of charging pile modules, and also participated in the State Grid bidding and cooperation with Putian and Teruide. This company is also an enterprise controlled by our actual controller. Last year's performance has not improved yet (100 million revenue/10 million net profit, mainly UPS, charging stations only account for 20-30%), and will be included when the performance reaches a certain scale. It should double this year, with charging piles accounting for 50-60% of this. Currently, most of the charging piles used by Jietai are provided by this company, and the net interest rate of charging piles can reach 10%. In terms of charging stations, we are now helping customers install piles (2B), and we will gradually open them up (2C) in the future. Last year, we made 100-200, usually 2 cars with 1 pile. Currently, it is mainly passenger transportation (including unit commuting to work), and operations are carried out through car rental fees (car rental costs include car purchase, construction of piles, etc.); for logistics companies, it is also a similar method. Currently, no service fees are charged. In the future, the operating cost of charging stations will still be included in the rental cost, but charging service fees will be shared with customers (6:4 or 7:3). Charging service fees are additional revenue to achieve added value. 13. The cost of the car, Jetstar's technical source, the cost of a small logistics vehicle developed by Jetstar in collaboration with Jetstar is 40,000 to 50,000 yuan (excluding subsidies). Jetstar's technicians, the pack is from FAW, and the BMS is from Canada (jointly developed algorithms, authorized) 14. There are more models in terms of number of models and prices. Last year, 4-meter cars were the main ones. This year, models with a load of 6 meters/1.5 tons similar to the Iveco will also be developed. In addition, models of about 5 meters (Delica, Sea Lion) are also being developed for use in the post office, as well as van-type freight vehicles (in cooperation with the East, 2 tons of load). The level of gross margin can be maintained. 15. The depreciation period for cars is 5 years, which can meet both the requirements of accounting standards and national quality assurance requirements. Losses generated during vehicle use can be eliminated through agreements, insurance, etc. 16. Currently, there are 500-600 logistics vehicles in operation.

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