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莱美药业(300006):专科药放量进入提速期的拐点型黑马

廣證恆生 ·  Aug 16, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: Domestic exclusive esomeprazole (lemecil) is in the import substitution period, and the tender is expected to drive rapid product volume growth. Lemesu is the first generic drug of the latest generation of esomeprazole, the strongest proton pump inhibitor. Second-generation proton pump inhibitors are gradually replacing first-generation proton pump inhibitors; currently the domestic market is almost monopolized by AstraZeneca (Nexin), and the share of lemesulide is only 1.1%, and import substitution is being accelerated. We believe that we have benefited from AstraZeneca's academic promotion over the years and the one-product dual-regulation bidding system in domestic hospitals. The bid price was close to 70 yuan/box from the original research manufacturer. The bid accelerated in 2016, and it has already won bids in 7 provinces and cities including Fujian, Jiangxi, Guangxi, and Sichuan. Online procurement in Beijing and Guangdong Province, and based on current domestic bidding competition, we believe that provinces such as Shandong, Yunnan, and Guizhou will also win bids in the second half of the year, leading to an increase in Lamex dosage. We estimate that Remesu will achieve revenue of 150 million/300 million/500 million in 2016 to 2018, respectively. The market volume of lymphatic tracers for malignant tumors is large. Exclusive nanocarbon is expected to help the company's performance grow. Nanochan is the only lymphatic tracer product approved by SFDA in China. Currently, the lymphatic tracer with the best clinical efficacy has gradually increased in recent years, increasing to 65% in 2015, with an average tender price of 2,000 yuan. The company actively promotes academic promotion coverage. According to terminal data from the Southern Institute of Pharmaceutical Economics, the product's sales in urban public hospitals were less than 70 million yuan in 2013, increased to 161 million yuan in 2014, and sales were close to 246 million (terminal price) in 2015, achieving ultra-rapid growth. This product corresponds to the company's 2015 revenue of 120 million (factory price), and we estimate that we are expected to achieve a revenue scale of 180 million/250 million/3.3 billion in 2016-2018. New products will be launched one after another, adding new highlights to the company for tumor cell therapy and the big health layout. The company has 7 products under review, and close to 20 products in clinical and pre-clinical research. Among them, the anti-tumor drug epirubicin hydrochloride is expected to be marketed in the near future. Currently, the domestic market for this product is still under Pfizer's oligopoly, and is expected to grow rapidly after launch. The company separately invests in and shares in the thyroid health management and medical information industry, in line with industry trends and policy directions. The company obtained exclusive production, development and commercialization rights for the tumor cell immunotherapy product AGS-003 in Greater China. The product is expected to complete phase III clinical trials in 2017. The appeal layout is expected to boost the company's growth in the future. Profit forecast and valuation: We expect the company's 15-18 EPS to be 0.09, 0.17, 0.3 yuan, respectively, corresponding to 98, 50, and 29 times PE. Considering the launch volume of the company's specialty pharmaceutical products, the rapid growth in performance and overseas expansion are expected to be implemented. For the first time, coverage was given a “Highly Recommended” rating, with a target price of 12 yuan. Risk warning: Subsequent domestically produced injections and similar dosage forms were introduced one after another, and the growth fell short of expectations.

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