Event: on July 12, 2019, the company issued a semi-annual performance forecast for 2019. 2019H1 expects to achieve a net profit of 50 million yuan to 60 million yuan belonging to shareholders of listed companies, an increase of 62.84% to 95.41% over the same period last year.
Comments: continue to firmly recommend the company, the company recently renamed in optics, the restructuring was successfully completed, the main business into "optoelectronic components + photoelectric machine" and "optoelectronic military products + optoelectronic civilian products" business layout. 2019H1, the company expects to achieve a net profit of 50 million yuan to 60 million yuan, an increase of 62.84% to 95.41% dagger 2019Q2 in a single quarter, an increase of 27.4254 million yuan to 37.4254 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 75.14%, 139.00%, and a month-on-month increase of 21.49%, 65.79%, mainly because the company focuses on improving quality and efficiency, continuously adjusting and optimizing product structure, and achieving steady growth in business performance and quality. Last year, the company entered Huawei's P30 supply chain and developed its civilian products business. At the same time, we are optimistic about the performance of the company's military business in the second half of the year, driving the company's performance to maintain high growth.
It is optimistic that Gava will be added to the military business in the second half of the year and benefit from the opportunity for the development of information-based equipment. China Optics business includes military optoelectronic defense products, military and civilian dual-use monitoring products and projection display and core components, of which military optoelectronic products are the main contributors. the products include light weapons series night vision sight (low light, infrared), tank armor series observation sight, etc., medium optical business presents a certain periodicity, the second half of the year is the company's military business development period, the company is optimistic that the second half of the year to maintain a strong growth momentum. At the same time, 2016-2018H1, the company's optoelectronic defense and key area monitoring capacity utilization rate increased year by year, from 73.97% to 126.28%, mainly because our country in order to adapt to the development of modern war situation, in recent years put forward the overall goal of national defense informatization and modernization, in military light weapons to strengthen the equipment standards for low-light, infrared and other sights, the current trend of military information construction As the military reform comes to an end at the end of 2017, the company will benefit from information-based equipment and usher in the opportunity for development.
The military optoelectronic / infrared market has great potential, and the infrared detector weapon has a wide application space. The increasing demand for battlefield perception in national defense and the improvement in efficiency brought about by technological progress are the main driving factors for the strong growth of optoelectronic and infrared markets. In the military optoelectronic / infrared system market, the use of imaging technology is on the rise. According to the military data released in the 2013 National Defense White Paper, after disarmament, the number of military personnel in our country is about 2 million. If 10% of our troops are equipped with infrared thermal imagers in the future, with one per capita, the market capacity of infrared thermal imagers for individual soldiers in China will reach 200000 sets, and calculated at 20,000 yuan per set, its market capacity will reach 4 billion yuan. Infrared thermal imager is widely used in tanks, armored vehicles, warships, aircraft and guided weapons. In the next ten years from 2017, the total market capacity of China's military infrared market will be more than 30 billion yuan. assuming that the infrared system renewal cycle is 10 years, the average annual market size is more than 3 billion yuan.
Investment advice: give the company a profit forecast of 274 million yuan for the year 19-21, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk hints: Sino-US trade war intensifies, military infrared application is not as expected, research and development progress is not as expected, and capacity utilization is not as expected.
